Induced traffic growth through the looking glass: a comparison of microeconomic and systems-based explanations of travel behaviour and governance responses to motorway development

This paper examines two different explanations using different theoretical frameworks to account for the phenomenon known as induced traffic growth. The first explanation is framed in terms of micro-economic theory and shows that under some conditions, induced traffic growth can undermine the economic benefits arising from urban motorway development as the additional traffic can erode travel time savings for existing traffic so that congestion returns until a new equilibrium is reached. But this explanation has a limited capacity to explain how and why traffic interacts with the rest of the urban system. The second explanation framed in terms of systems theory renders induced traffic growth as a form of positive system feedback - which if allowed to continue would eventually destroy the system. By tracking the path of decisions needed to complete the feedback loop, it is shown that information passes between a soft-system - or decision-making system, usually located within government transport agencies - and a hard-system - the transport network that provides access for people. Critical to this explanation is a misunderstanding on the part of transport decision-makers controlling the soft-system as to what the addition of road space actually does to service levels on the hard system that is controlled by a confluence of material factors.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.wctrs.leeds.ac.uk/conferences/archive-of-world-conferences/proceedings-from-lisbon-conference-selected/
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9789899698604
• Authors:
  • Zeibots, M
• Conference:
  • World Congress on Transport Research, 12th, 2010, Lisbon, Portugal
• Publication Date: 2010-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 18p
• Serial:
  • Issue Number: 02119

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Economic analysis; Highway capacity; Policy; Traffic flow; Travel behavior
• Uncontrolled Terms: Policy and planning
• ATRI Terms: Decision process; Economic analysis; Policy; Traffic capacity; Traffic flow; Travel behaviour
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01380604
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• ISBN: 9789899698604
• Files: ATRI
• Created Date: Aug 22 2012 11:00AM