The 9/11 Terrorist Attack and Overseas Travel to the United States: Initial Impacts and Longer-Run Recovery

The United States experienced an immediate and precipitous drop in arrivals of overseas visitors following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The perception that U.S. visa policy became more restrictive in the wake of 9/11 may have negatively impacted arrivals. Although visa policy itself did not significantly change after 9/11, the security screening procedures that are part of the visa application process were standardized and intensified. For example, certain administrative procedures related to visa issuance and entry at the U.S. border were implemented as part of an enhanced travel security protocol. The security procedures related to visa issuance only affected visa applicants traveling to the United States and did not affect travelers from countries participating in the Visa Waiver Program (VWP). While travelers from VWP and non-VWP countries were exposed to the same screening procedures upon entry to the United States, some travelers from non-VWP countries were subject to an additional layer of processing. The fact that VWP travelers are exempt from the visa issuance procedures and are not exposed to the additional entry processing that some non-VWP arrivals undergo introduces inter-country variation that can be used to test whether the new administrative procedures actually reduced travel to the United States among travelers needing a visa. This Working Paper examines whether the initial decline and eventual recovery of overseas travel to United States during the post-9/11 period varied according to the sending country’s participation in the VWP. To address whether the post-9/11 security protocol significantly impacted arrivals based on VWP status, the authors employ two estimation strategies. The first strategy involves estimating an econometric model of nonimmigrant arrivals for the period 1981-2007. The authors then model the recovery of arrivals in the post-9/11 period for both VWP and non-VWP countries. If the post-9/11 security changes impacted countries differently depending on their VWP status, then one testable implication is that VWP arrivals should have returned to their pre-9/11 levels more quickly than did non-VWP arrivals, holding all else constant. The results offer qualified support for this hypothesis. VWP arrivals returned to their pre-9/11 level by 2006 while non-VWP arrivals did not. Limitations of this study, and directions for future research are discussed.

• Record URL:
  https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ni_911_wp.pdf
• Corporate Authors:

  Department of Homeland Security

  Office of Immigration Statistics
  Washington, DC    20528
• Authors:
  • Cornwell, Derekh
  • Roberts, Bryan
• Publication Date: 2010-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Working Paper
• Features: Bibliography; Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: 13p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Before and after studies; Econometric models; International relations; International travel; National security; Policy; Travel demand; Travelers
• Identifier Terms: Terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001
• Uncontrolled Terms: Visas
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01380381
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 21 2012 8:54AM