FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2012-2032

This forecast looks at how many planes and how many people will fly on U.S. carriers over the years 2012 to 2032. As the economy continues to recover, the number of takeoffs and landings and the number of passengers who board U.S. airlines are expected to continue to climb with a steady, moderate growth, as they have in the last two years. The forecast calls for a slight decrease (less than one percent) in domestic capacity in 2012, as measured by available seat miles. This is after a 2 percent increase in 2011. Despite this pause in growth, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects continued growth between 2 percent and 3 percent per year over the next 20 years. This year’s forecast predicts that the industry will grow from 731 million passengers in 2011 to 1.2 billion in 2032. Cumulatively, air traffic growth for U.S. carriers–measured by revenue passenger miles–is expected to rise by more than 90 percent in the next 20 years. It grew by 3.5 percent in 2011. Airport tower operations are expected to increase by 23 percent. Also, the number of aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers, which separate high altitude traffic, is expected to increase by 50 percent. Over the next 20 years, large airports will continue to grow faster than their smaller counterparts in the United States. FAA is forecasting that the number of larger regional jets will increase, while most of the smaller regional jets will be retired from the fleet. On the general aviation front, the demand for products and services will continue to grow, particularly in new business jets and light sport aircraft. As the U.S. aviation system advances into the next century of flight, the solution for handling the demand for service is the Next Generation Air Transportation System, or NextGen. The FAA is in the process of transforming the U.S. national air space system from the ground-based radar of today, to the satellite-based system of tomorrow. This is a fundamental change in the way the United States and the world will navigate and control air traffic.

• Record URL:
  • https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/media/2012%20FAA%20Aerospace%20Forecast.pdf
• 
• Corporate Authors:

  Federal Aviation Administration

  Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, 800 Independence Avenue, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20591
• Publication Date: 2012

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: 124p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic; Air travel; Airport capacity; Aviation; Forecasting; General aviation; Passenger miles; Regional airlines; Travel demand; Trend (Statistics)
• Identifier Terms: Next Generation Air Transportation System
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01373358
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Jun 21 2012 3:53PM