International air freight movements through Australian airports to 2030

In this study, long-term forecasts of air freight movements through Australian airports over the next twenty years have been developed using econometric freight demand models. The models are single equation models and are specified in a double logarithmic linear functional form in terms of population, income, prices and exchange rates. They have been widely used in many tourism and transport demand forecasting studies and were estimated using historical data from 1985-86 to 2009-10. In the models, freight volume and income variables are specified on a per capita basis to avoid the consequences of possible collinearity between population and real income variables. The estimated demand parameters suggest that the volume of air freight is positively influenced by per capita real income and negatively influenced by own real prices. In 2009-10, a total of 798,100 tonnes of international air freight, including 318,600 tonnes of exports and 479,500 tonnes of imports, were moved through Australian airports. With expected positive population and economic growth, the international air freight industry will continue to perform strongly over the next twenty years. The volume of international outbound and inbound air freight through Australian airports is forecast to increase by 2.7 and 6.0 per cent a year over the next twenty years to 0.5 and 1.2 million tonnes, respectively, in 2029-30.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.atrf.info/papers/index.aspx
• Authors:
  • Hamal, K
• Conference:
  • Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 34th, 2011, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
• Publication Date: 2011-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 12p
• Serial:
  • Volume: 34
  • Issue Number: 0027

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Airports; Forecasting; Freight transportation; Mathematical models
• Geographic Terms: Australia
• ATRI Terms: Air transport; Airport; Forecast; Freight transport; Modelling
• ITRD Terms: 1126: Air transport; 132: Forecast; 1112: Freight transport
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Freight Transportation; Terminals and Facilities; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01369505
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: May 3 2012 10:45AM