Inverse optimization with endogenous arrival time constraints to calibrate the household activity pattern problem

A parameter estimation method is proposed for calibrating the household activity pattern problem so that it can be used as a disaggregate, activity-based analog of the traffic assignment problem for activity-based travel forecasting. Inverse optimization is proposed for estimating parameters of the household activity pattern problem such that the observed behavior is optimal, the patterns can be replicated, and the distribution of the parameters is consistent. In order to fit the model to both the sequencing of activities and the arrival times to those activities, an inverse problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem such that coefficients of the objectives are jointly estimated along with the goal arrival times to the activities. The formulation is designed to be structurally similar to the equivalent problems defined by Ahuja and Orlin and can be solved exactly with a cutting plane algorithm. The concept of a unique invariant common prior is used to regularize the estimation method, and proven to converge using the Method of Successive Averages. The inverse model is tested on sample households from the 2001 California Household Travel Survey and results indicate a significant improvement over the standard inverse problem in the literature as well as baseline prescriptive models that do not make use of sample data for calibration. Although, not unexpectedly, the estimated optimization model by itself is a relatively poor forecasting model, it may be used in determining responses of a population to spatio-temporal scenarios where revealed preference data is absent.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261511001718
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01912615
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Chow, Joseph Y J
  • Recker, Will W
• Publication Date: 2012-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 463-479
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
  • Volume: 46
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0191-2615
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01912615

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Activity choices; Households; Mixed integer programming; Optimization; Traffic assignment; Traffic forecasting
• Identifier Terms: 2001 National Household Travel Survey
• Uncontrolled Terms: Activity based; Arrival times; Goal programming; Inverse model; Method of successive averages; Pickup and delivery problem
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01368141
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Apr 20 2012 12:08PM