Estimating Non-motorized Trail Traffic Using Negative Binomial Regression Models
Traffic counts and models of non-motorized traffic on multiuse urban trails are needed to improve planning and management of urban transportation systems. Negative binomial regression models are useful when dependent variables of interest are non-negative, integer count values and defined for equal time periods. This paper presents eight negative binomial models for estimating urban trail traffic using 1,020 mixed-mode daily traffic counts from active infrared counters at six locations in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Our models include up to 11 independent variables that represent socio-demographic, built environment, weather, and temporal characteristics. A general model includes all independent variables and can be used to estimate traffic at locations where traffic has not been monitored or for newly proposed trails. A six-location model with dummy variables for each monitoring site rather than neighborhood specific variables can be used to estimate traffic at existing locations when counts from monitors are not available and for evaluation and other planning purposes. Six trail-specific models are appropriate for estimating variation in traffic in response to variations in weather and day of week at each monitoring location. Validation results indicate negative binomial models outperform models estimated with ordinary least squares regression. These new models estimate traffic within approximately 30%, on average, which is reasonable for planning purposes such as prioritization of locations for maintenance or allocation of funding for trail improvements.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB50 Transportation Planning Applications
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Wang, Xize
- Lindsey, Greg
- Hankey, Steve
- Hoff, Kris
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
- Date: 2012
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 19p
- Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Binomial distributions; Nonmotorized transportation; Regression analysis; Traffic counts; Traffic estimation; Traffic models; Trails
- Geographic Terms: Minneapolis (Minnesota)
- Subject Areas: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01363280
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 12-4479
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Feb 23 2012 8:20AM