Economic Impacts of a Statewide Low-Carbon Fuel Standard: A Multi-Scenario Analysis of a Proposed LCFS in Oregon

This paper presents the results of macroeconomic analyses of eight alternative responses to a California-style low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) rule in the state of Oregon. LCFS policies require that the fuel supply used become ten percent less carbon-intense over ten years. Such policies mandate no specific fuel requirement, either by type or by volume of fuel. Instead, they only mandate an average carbon intensity standard for the fuel supply. Such policies have been praised as economically beneficial because they could drive a shift from imported fuels to domestic fuels, but have been criticized because mandates may conflict with supply limitations, potentially driving up fuel prices and transportation costs. The state of Oregon recently commissioned a macroeconomic impact analysis to project the economy-wide impacts on overall productivity, employment, and incomes that would result from an LCFS in Oregon. The analysis considered a range of scenarios intended to bracket the range of possible industry responses to such a standard. Scenarios imagined reliance on in-state biofuels, out-of-state or foreign biofuels, or natural gas and electrification. The paper will discuss results showing that the scenarios relying on electric and natural gas fuels had the greatest positive impacts, that scenarios relying on in-state biofuels supply showed larger positive impacts than those relying on out-of-state supply, and that no scenario showed any negative macroeconomic impacts. This paper will discuss the scenarios, the macroeconomic impacts, the analysis methodology used, and the ways in which these results differed from other recent literature on the topic.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Williamson, Scott
  • Lawrence, Michael
  • Pramod, Kavitha
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
• Date: 2012

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alternate fuels; Alternatives analysis; Economic analysis; Economic impacts; Forecasting; Macroeconomics; Policy analysis; Standards
• Geographic Terms: Oregon
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Highways; I10: Economics and Administration; I15: Environment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01371331
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 12-4187
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 30 2012 3:00PM