Embracing Uncertainty in Regional Transportation Planning: A Transit District Case Study
This paper focuses on how the practice of scenario planning for transportation can be adapted under certain circumstances to acknowledge the uncertainty facing transportation agencies in the form of external forces, trends, and threats. Using this new focus, planners can develop multiple plausible scenarios and focus on monitoring how the future unfolds rather than choosing a preferred future that will likely be rendered obsolete by factors outside the agency’s control. The scenario planning process outlined in this paper was used by the State of Oregon’s Lane Transit District to develop a long-range transit plan. The scenario planning method described in this paper effectively responds to weaknesses in current practice, including a focus on a single, preferred scenario, reliance on a single population and employment forecast, and a routine failure to monitor trends over time.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP025 Public Transportation Planning and Development
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Hull, Kristin
- Seskin, Sam
- Schwetz, Tom
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
- Date: 2012
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 18p
- Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Case studies; Forecasting; Regional planning; Transportation departments; Uncertainty
- Identifier Terms: Lane Transit District
- Geographic Terms: Oregon
- Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01373735
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 12-4098
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Jun 25 2012 2:47PM