Forecasting Coal Movements through Mississippi River Lock No. 27 Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression

This paper uses linear regression to estimate the monthly demand for coal shipments on the Mississippi River during the 2001-2009 period. Using monthly time-series data, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates were obtained for the regressor parameters. The data used in the estimation include a set of data for electricity generation by fuel source for several Midwestern states. The estimated model suggests that higher lock delays and diesel fuel prices from previous months decrease the tonnage of coal moved in the current month, while higher levels of coal moved in previous months positively affect the current month’s tonnage. Also, interestingly, it appears that higher levels of wind and petroleum energy generation are associated with higher tonnages of coal moved, which suggests that coal-generated electricity plays but one part in an interdependent system of various electricity-generating technologies. The implications of the results from this paper are significant. It suggests that coal movements for future periods can be predicted with a relatively high degree of accuracy and precision, based on actual or forecasted data from periods prior to the desired forecast period. These forecasts draw on readily-available information, and can be utilized by various public and private planning and investment agencies.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AW020 Inland Water Transportation
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Lavrenz, Steve
  • Gkritza, Konstantina
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
• Date: 2012

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Least squares method; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Regression analysis; Shipper demand
• Geographic Terms: Mississippi River
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01363757
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 12-2106
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 24 2012 7:20AM