Exploring Changes Affecting Travel Behavior of Seniors

In 2056, more than one quart of the Quebec population will be aged 65 years and older. Population aging is a worldwide issue and urban areas facing such intense phenomena will face multiple challenges, namely related to the provision of efficient and adapted social services such as transportation. Using data from five large-scale Origin-Destination travel surveys from the Montreal Area, covering 20 years, a pseudo-cohort analysis is conducted to document how features and behaviors of elderly are changing over time. Eights cohorts of people are studied using an age-period-cohort-characteristics modeling framework. Individual car access, non-motorization and transit share are modeled using this approach allowing to separate the effects due to aging, cohort (year of birth) and period (fundamental changes affecting all cohorts). Results show that age has a negative impact on car access but that there is an important positive period effect; non-motorization evolution is mainly due to aging while period and cohort effects are negative; age and cohort effects reduce transit share but the period one is now increasing since 1998 (generalized increase in transit share). The application of such models for prediction is also illustrated.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Grégoire, Julien
  • Morency, Catherine
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
• Date: 2012

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aged; Origin and destination; Socioeconomic factors; Travel behavior
• Uncontrolled Terms: Cohort analysis
• Geographic Terms: Quebec (Canada)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01370089
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 12-0686
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 16 2012 3:05PM