Passenger and Freight Transport in Flanders 2010-2040 under Three Scenarios

This paper describes how a passenger and a freight transport model for Flanders was developed in a relatively cost-efficient way by transferring model concepts that have been applied in the Netherlands and Scandinavia. The models were calibrated to Flemish data (zoning system, network, population, costs) by adding a limited set of mode and distance band-specific constants. The models contain a lot of detail in the socio-economic segments and response mechanisms in passenger and freight transport that they handle. Therefore, the resulting models are sensitive to many scenario variables and very suited for scenario analysis. For detailed cost-benefit analysis of specific infrastructure schemes, more spatially detailed models that have been fully estimated on local data are recommended. The transferred models were used to analyze three scenarios for Flanders up to the year 2040 for the Flanders transport master plan. Passenger transport by airplane was treated in a separate new model, with coefficients based on the literature. In all three scenarios, freight transport will grow much more than passenger transport. The numbers of tours and passenger kilometers per person will remain more or less stable because transport will become considerably more expensive in real terms, whereas speeds will not change much. If in the next three decades new means of travel would be introduced that would speed up travel, the outcomes for passenger transport might be very different. Car and lorry transport will see the highest price increases and according to the models will lose market share. Within passenger transport, air travel will be the fastest growing.

• Record URL:
  https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-pre-2009/conference-papers-2010
• Corporate Authors:

  Association for European Transport (AET)

  1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
  London W14 0RL,    
• Authors:
  • de Jong, Gerard
  • Baak, Jaap
  • Ruijs, Kim
  • Pieters, Marits
  • Bellemans, Tom
  • Janssens, Davy
  • Wets, Geert
• Conference:
  • European Transport Conference, 2010
  • Location: Glasgow Scotland, United Kingdom
  • Date: 2010-10-11 to 2010-10-13
• Publication Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 12p
• Monograph Title: European Transport Conference, 2010 Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Freight traffic; Freight transportation; Highway transportation; Passenger transportation; Travel costs; Trucks
• Geographic Terms: Flanders (Belgium); Netherlands; Scandinavia
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Freight Transportation; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01353846
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 19 2011 12:52PM