Handling Risk and Irreversibility of Transport Interventions

This paper describes how infrastructure decisions and transport policies are often based on the notion that all possible decisions are made at one single point in time, based on the best accessible evaluation of benefits and costs of alternatives. The transport sector is a complex and dynamic system and inherent in the complexities are; uncertainty, risk, irreversibility, path dependency and lock-in effects. The dynamics of transport systems are determined by the interplay of the many different systems often with different time lags. The early identification of unintended adverse effects after the introduction of measures or policy packages can help significantly improve their effectiveness and increase the chance of meeting the goals they were designed to meet. While it is imperative to address the unintended adverse effects ex ante, there is no prescription and blue print for a correcting procedure. Therefore, it is important to address the flexibility to change policy measures if intentions and outcome do not match. Risk and uncertainty and irreversibility are often weakly understood by public officials. The paper shows how it is important to improve risk assessment, risk valuation and risk management. And in general, how to change planning framework to embrace risk and flexibility and form a static thinking associated with traditional methods to methods of dynamic planning where decisions are made continuously and based on a steady flow of new information.

• Record URL:
  https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-pre-2009/conference-papers-2010
• Corporate Authors:

  Association for European Transport (AET)

  1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
  London W14 0RL,    
• Authors:
  • Ramjerdi, F
  • Fearnley, N
  • Givoni, M
  • MacMillen, J
• Conference:
  • European Transport Conference, 2010
  • Location: Glasgow Scotland, United Kingdom
  • Date: 2010-10-11 to 2010-10-13
• Publication Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Bibliography;
• Pagination: 11p
• Monograph Title: European Transport Conference, 2010 Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Infrastructure; Policy making; Risk assessment; Risk management; Transportation policy; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Adverse effects
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01352577
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 26 2011 7:58AM