Development of a Risk-Based Landslide Warning System

A risk-based, real-time landslide warning system is being developed for Provincial Road 303 near the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. The essence of the warning system is to warn the traffic or construction teams of the risks in different parts of the road caused by an imminent storm or ongoing rainfall event. The terrains along the road are divided into cells based on types of hazards (landslides, rockfalls, or debris flows) and geomorphic considerations. Digital elevation models for the cells have been constructed based on results of remote sensing and local engineering surveys. A rain-gauge network has been established to measure real time rainfall distributions over the cells, considering changes in elevation and wind direction. The occurrence probability of landslides in each cell in response to a recorded rainfall event is evaluated using standard reliability methods. Based on such failure probabilities, it is possible to produce a real-time risk map along the road. The warning levels for different cells are then determined separately by further considering their respective total potential loss of lives and expected mortality rate.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1061/41183(418)2
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780784411834
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Copyright © 2011 ASCE
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Tang, Wilson H
  • Zhang, L M
• Conference:
  • GeoRisk 2011
  • Location: Atlanta Georgia, United States
  • Date: 2011-6-26 to 2011-6-28
• Publication Date: 2011

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Monograph Title: Geo-Risk 2011: Risk Assessment and Management

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Computer models; Earthquakes; Landslides; Rainfall; Risk management; Warning systems
• Identifier Terms: Great Wenchuan Earthquake (China)
• Subject Areas: Geotechnology; I40: Soils and Rocks; I51: Earthworks and Soil Drainage;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01371444
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780784411834
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: May 30 2012 3:01PM