PREDICTION OF RECORDED ACCIDENTS AND VIOLATIONS USING NON- DRIVING PREDICTORS

AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO PREDICT WHETHER EACH OF 360 TRUCK DRIVERS HAD AT LEAST ONE ACCIDENT RECORDED DURING THE PAST THREE YEARS WITH CALIFORNIAS DEPARTMENT OF MOTOR VEHICLES. THE PREDICTION WAS BASED ON 27 NON-DRIVING VARIABLES ON WHICH DATA COULD HAVE BEEN COLLECTED BEFORE LICENSING. THE SAME PREDICTION PROCEDURE WAS ALSO USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO PREDICT RECORDED VIOLATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS WAS EMPLOYED IN THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DATA. FACTORS STUDIED INCLUDED PERSONAL, COGNITIVE, VISUAL, MOTOR /REACTION TIME/, MEDICAL, AND PERSONALITY SCORES FROM TWO GROUPS OF 360 DRIVERS EACH. THE PREDICTION OF RECORDED ACCIDENTS, ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH IN ANY ABSOLUTE SENSE, WAS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT. THUS, A JUSTIFICATION EXISTED FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE VARIABLES THAT CONTRIBUTED TO THAT PREDICTION. IN A ROUGH SENSE, ACCIDENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE YOUNGER DRIVER WITH GLASSES WHO IS SLOW IN BRAKING. THE PREDICTION OF RECORDED VIOLATIONS WAS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT IT FAILED TO REACH A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEVEL. ANALYSIS SEEMED TO INDICATE THAT THIS FAILURE WAS DUE TO THE USE OF THE SAME PROCEDURE FOR RECORDED ACCIDENTS; HAD A PROCEDURE BEEN USED THAT WOULD UTILIZE THE ESSENTIALLY CONTINUOUS CHARACTERISTIC OF RECORDED VIOLATIONS, THE PREDICTION OF RECORDED VIOLATIONS WOULD ALSO HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT. THUS, IT WAS FELT JUSTIFIED TO DISCUSS ALSO THE VARIABLES THAT CONTRIBUTED TO THAT PREDICTION. IN A ROUGH SENSE, VIOLATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE YOUNGER, TALLER /OR HEAVIER / DRIVER WHOSE KNOWLEDGE OF DRIVING REGULATIONS IS LOW, WHOSE SIDE VISION /AND POSSIBLY NIGHT VISION/ IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE, AND WHOSE SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/hrr/1963/4/4-003.pdf
• Supplemental Notes:
  • No4, Pp50-61, 1FIG, 3TAB, 7REF. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Levonian, E
  • Case, H W
  • Gregory, R
• Publication Date: 1963

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 50-
• Monograph Title: Highway safety
• Serial:
  • Highway Research Record
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Highway Research Board

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior; Diseases and medical conditions; Drivers; Forecasting; Human characteristics; Human factors; Medicine; Multivariate analysis; Reaction time; Records management; Statistical analysis; Traffic crashes; Truck drivers; Vision
• Uncontrolled Terms: Driver characteristics; Records; Violations
• Old TRIS Terms: Driver psychology; Driver vision; Medical factors; Test results
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Finance; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00219530
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jan 25 1994 12:00AM