How Should the Passenger Rail Market be Segmented for Demand Forecasting Purposes?

This paper develops a new approach to segmenting the passenger rail market for use in demand forecasting. By applying a series of in-depth techniques, a robust segmentation is proposed for developing new forecasting guidance. Any assessment of a market, whether it be for the purposes of understanding how demand is likely to develop over time, for understanding the likely impact of a change in policy, or developing evidence on whether a merger should be allowed to proceed, requires evidence on demand responses. These demand responses are represented using the concept of elasticity. This reflects how demand will change for a given change in a demand driver, such as fares, journey times, or incomes. However, elasticities will be different for different products, and in different geographies. The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) presents demand forecasting guidance for the British passenger rail market. The market is segmented according to ticket types and a number of geographic markets. In terms of products, the segmentation used is broadly consistent through the Handbook, with elasticities provided for first and standard class travel, for tickets booked in advance, for off-peak tickets, and for season tickets. However, the definitions of products in these categories has changed through time, particularly with the increasing use of yield management by train operators. In addition, a product-based segmentation is not necessarily consistent with the needs of some users of the Handbook, especially policymakers. Geographical segmentation in the Handbook has not changed in the two decades since being developed. As a result, geographical markets are often inconsistently defined and do not necessarily reflect today’s market. The key aims of this study is to provide empirical evidence on market segmentation in the passenger rail market. This paper presents the approaches used and initial recommendations on a revised market segmentation.

• Record URL:
  • https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-pre-2009/conference-papers-2009
• Corporate Authors:

  Association for European Transport (AET)

  1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
  London W14 0RL,    
• Authors:
  • Wingate, W
  • Meaney, Andrew
  • Shepherd, Matthew
  • Cartmell, J
  • Spencer, A
• Conference:
  • European Transport Conference, 2009
  • Location: Leiden Leeuwenhorst Conference Centre , Netherlands
  • Date: 2009-10-5 to 2009-10-7
• Publication Date: 2009

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Pagination: v.p.
• Monograph Title: European Transport Conference, 2009 Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Handbooks; Market segmented groups; Passenger transportation; Railroad traffic; Railroad transportation; Train operation; Travel demand; Travel time
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01349531
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 10 2011 10:43AM