Deterrence Theory and the Implementation of Speed Limits in the American States

Despite the ubiquitous nature of these policies, there is disagreement in the literature regarding the direction and size of the impact that speed limits have on traffic-related fatalities. This paper argues that the mixed results in previous work may arise because these studies have missed an important component of the implementation of speed limit laws. More explicitly, they have failed to adequately control for the deterrent effect of enforcement and sanctions. The argument is developed that the observed impacts of speed limits will be overly large when the certainty and severity of punishment are not accounted for. This assertion is tested in a cross-sectional time series analysis of state-level traffic fatalities from the years 1990–2006 and it is found that lower speeds do save a significant number of lives. Interestingly, the impact is significantly overestimated for 65-mph limits and significantly underestimated for 70-mph limits when enforcement, penalties, and the interaction of the 2 are excluded. Results also suggest that fines have a rather modest impact on fatalities unless states employ a sufficient number of troopers to enforce posted limits. In addition to clarifying previous findings related to speed limit policy, therefore, the findings contribute to the general application of deterrence theory by empirically confirming that the importance of sanction severity is dependent on the perceived certainty of punishment.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/1316083
• Authors:
  • Ritchey, Mark
  • Nicholson-Crotty, Sean
• Publication Date: 2011-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 329-346
• Serial:
  • Policy Studies Journal
  • Volume: 39
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
  • ISSN: 0190-292X
  • EISSN: 1541-0072
  • Serial URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1541-0072

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile driving; Crash causes; Fatalities; Highway safety; Speed limits; Time series analysis; Traffic crashes; Transportation policy
• Uncontrolled Terms: Deterrence
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01341193
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 30 2011 6:50AM