WORLDWIDE MODAL SHIFT POTENTIAL: SCENARIOS FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY USING ENERGY-EFFICIENT MODES OF TRANSPORTATION

Over the years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has been developing a transport modelling framework to be able to develop long term scenarios for the worldwide transport sector. The main aim of this model was to quantify Energy use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and local pollutants from the worldwide transport sector at the 2050 horizon for various scenarios used in IEA publications. Apart from technology improvement, recent efforts have been dedicated to estimate the energy savings and GHG mitigation potential from modal shifting, where persons and goods are using more efficient modes of transportation for their respective journeys. A new “botopdown” (bottom-up then top-down) approach has been developed to estimate modal share for future scenarios from the ASIF framework of the existing model. When available, existing surveys have been used to get past trends for modal shares by mode, region, and trip distance. Building on UITP strategy to double public transport share worldwide by 2025, the IEA has developed a new “BLUE Shift” scenario involving a set of policies that help promotes modal shifting towards more energy-efficient modes. Preliminary results presented in this paper show that reducing individual road modes and air transportation activity by 25% from a baseline scenario in 2050 leads to 20% energy saving and GHG emissions reduction worldwide

• Corporate Authors:

  International Association of Public Transport (UITP)

  Rue Sainte Marie 6
  Brussels,   Belgium  BE-1080
• Authors:
  • Fulton, Lew
  • 0000-0001-8292-3420
• Publication Date: 2011

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 24
• Serial:
  • CONGRESS - DUBAI 2011
  • Issue Number: Session 01

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Analysis; Energy conservation; Market share; Markets; Mathematical models; Mobility; Modal shift; Modal split; Public transit; Strategic planning; Travel behavior
• UITP Terms: Energy efficiency; Market share; Mobility behaviours; Modal shift; Modal split; Modelling; Prospective; Public transport market; Strategic vision
• Subject Areas: Energy; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01338826
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: International Association of Public Transport (UITP)
• Files: UITP
• Created Date: May 3 2011 2:23PM