THE FORECASTING OF TRANSPORT REQUIREMENTS AS A BASIS FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ZUR PROGNOSTIZIERUNG DES TRANSPORTBEDARFES ALS GRUNDLAGE DER VERKEHRSPLANUNG IN ENTWICKLUNGSLAENDERN
THE PREDICTION OF FUTURE TRANSPORT NEEDS IS A NECESSARY PREREQUISITE OF A LOGICAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN, ESPECIALLY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN PHASING IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES COMPARED WITH THE ADVANCED ECONOMIES OF WESTERN SOCIETIES. THIS SITUATION CAUSES CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTIES BOTH IN THE GOODS TRANSPORT SECTOR, WHICH IS MAINLY CONCERNED WITH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AND IN THE TRANSPORT OF PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY IN LARGE CONURBATIONS WHOSE INFRASTRUCTURE USUALLY CANNOT KEEP PACE WITH THE RAPID GROWTH OF URBAN POPULATION MASSES. IT IS NECESSARY THEREFORE TO HAVE A SAFER ESTIMATE OF EVENTUALITIES IF A REALISTIC IDEA OF FUTURE TRENDS IS REQUIRED, INSTEAD OF A UTOPIAN VISION. ALSO IT IS CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL EVER BE POSSIBLE TO PRODUCE A SYSTEM WHICH COULD BE USED IN THE SAME WAY FOR EVERY DEVELOPING COUNTRY.
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Authors:
- KLAASSEN, L H
- Publication Date: 1976-12
Language
- German
Media Info
- Pagination: 603-10
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Serial:
- VERKEHRSANNALEN
- Volume: 23
- Issue Number: 6
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Benefit cost analysis; Demand; Developing countries; Forecasting; Planning; Rural areas; Traffic; Urban areas
- ITRD Terms: 226: Cost benefit analysis; 285: Demand (econ); 150: Developing countries; 132: Forecast; NETWORK (TRANSP); 143: Planning; 328: Rural area; 755: Traffic; 313: Urban area
- Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01301939
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
- Files: ITRD
- Created Date: Nov 21 2010 8:27AM