MOTIVES AND METHODS OF TRAFFIC FORECASTS

MOTIVE UND METHODEN DER VERKEHRSPROGNOSEN

EVEN THOUGH THE TRAFFIC FORECAST FORMS THE MAIN PART OF EVERY TRANSPORTATION PLAN IT REPRESENTS ONE OF THE WEAKEST PARTS OF THE TOTAL PLANNING PROCESS. AS REGARDS METHODS OF TRAFFIC FORECASTING, A DISTINCTION IS MADE BETWEEN THE METHODS WHICH TAKE TECHNICOLOGICAL CHANGE INTO ACCOUNT AND THOSE THAT DO NOT, AND BETWEEN STATIC AND DYNAMIC METHODS. THE MOST IMPORTANT GROUP OF FORECASTING METHODS IS THAT BASED ON TRAFFIC GENERATION, SPECIFICALLY ON THE FORECASTING OF ROAD NETWORK SIZES AND BEHAVIOURAL PATTERNS. THE DUBIOUSNESS OF ALL FORECASTS EXISTS SIMPLY BECAUSE UNTIL NOW ONLY HYPOTHESIS EXISTS ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS. WHILST THE MOTIVES OF A TRAFFIC FORECAST ARE AT LEAST DEFINABLE, THE METHODS OF CARRYING IT OUT MUST STILL BE REGARDED AS UNSATISFACTORY BECAUSE THEY ARE OF A FORMAL MATHEMATICAL NATURE.

• Authors:
  • KNOFLACHER, H
• Publication Date: 1976-12

Language

• German

Media Info

• Pagination: 520-5
• Serial:
  • VERKEHRSANNALEN
  • Volume: 23
  • Issue Number: 6

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Dynamics; Forecasting; Methodology; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Traffic; Traffic flow; Trip generation
• ITRD Terms: 5473: Dynamics; 132: Forecast; 663: Generated traffic; 9102: Method; 755: Traffic; 671: Traffic flow; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01301935
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Nov 21 2010 8:26AM