SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF SHORTAGE OF ENERGY ON THE REGIONAL TRAFFIC SYSTEM OF A HIGHLY DEVELOPED AREA

SIMULATION DER AUSWIRKUNGEN EINER ENERGIEVERKNAPPUNG IM REGIONALEN VERKEHRSSYSTEM EINES BALLUNGSRAUMES

AS A SUPPLEMENT TO THE WORK ON THE TOTAL TRAFFIC PLAN FOR THE REGION OF NUERNBERG, AN INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF PETROL TO DM3.-- PER LITRE WAS ANALYSED FOR ITS EFFECTS ON TRAFFIC FOR THE YEAR 1985. THE WORK WAS CARRIED OUT WITH A DISAGGREGATED MODEL WHICH EXAMINES THE VARIOUS TYPES OF JOURNEYS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SENSITIVITY TO INCREASES IN THE PRICE OF FUEL. IT WAS SHOWN THAT, DEPENDING ON THE TYPE OF JOURNEY, THERE WILL BE A TRANSFER FROM PRIVATE TO PASSENGER TRANSPORT, RESULTING IN AN 18 PERCENT REDUCTION IN PRIVATE TRANSPORT. THERE WILL BE NO PARTICULAR PROBLEMS OF CAPACITY IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT. HOWEVER IN THE LONG TERM THERE WOULD BE CHANGES IN SETTLEMENT STRUCTURE IF THESE PRICE RISES CAME INTO BEING TO OFFSET THE COSTS TO THE HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTED.