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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

SYNTHETIC GENERATION OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION

AN ANALYTICAL MODEL WAS DEVELOPED FOR THE SYNTHESIS OF SEASONAL POINT PRECIPITATION AT STATE COLLEGE, PA., BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS FROM 27 YEARS OF HISTORICAL DATA. THE SYNTHESIZED DATA PRESERVED REASONABLY WELL THE MEANS AND VARIANCES OF THE SELECTED PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS (AMOUNT, LENGTH OF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN EVENTS, PRECIPITATION DURATIONS, AND PARAMETERS DESCRIBING THE TIME PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES), WHICH WERE CHOSEN WITH A BIAS TOWARD STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS. A BASIC ASSUMPTION WAS THAT THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS STOCHASTIC. CERTAIN INTERDEPENDENCIES WERE ALSO ASSUMED. EVENTS WERE GENERATED BY MONTE CARLO SAMPLING. THE MODEL, WHICH WAS EXECUTED ON AN IBM 360/37, UTILIZED 1N AND 1N BIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS, THE BIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS PRESERVING THE ASSUMED INTERDEPENDENCIES. THE SEASONAL CYCLE IN PRECIPITATION WAS DEFINED BY DIVIDING THE YEAR INTO ONE 60-DAY PERIOD AND FIVE PERIODS OF 61 DAYS. TIME PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES WERE DESCRIBED BY THE IMCOMPLETE BETA FUNCTION. MOST OF THE EXPECTED VALUES OF THE SIMULATED RECORD DID NOT DIFFER STATISTICALLY FROM THOSE OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD, BUT MOST OF THE VARIANCES DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY, ALTHOUGH NOT BY AS MUCH AS 15 PERCENT. THE MODEL ALSO GENERATED LUMPED EVENTS LIKE THOSE OF WET PERIODS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO DESIGN A MODEL FOR SYNTHETIC GENERATION OF POINT PRECIPITATION RECORDS.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 118 No 1, PP 30-46, 3 FIG, 3 TAB, 13 REF
  • Authors:
    • Heimstra, L A
    • Creese, R C
  • Publication Date: 0

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  • Accession Number: 00204315
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 7 1970 12:00AM