PROBABILITY MODEL FOR JOINT DETERIORATION

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

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/hrr/1973/471/471-012.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309022568
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Pavement Condition Evaluation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Holbrook, Lawrence
• Conference:
  • 52nd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1973-1-22 to 1973-1-26
• Publication Date: 1973

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 118-129
• Monograph Title: Evaluation of pavement surface properties and vehicle interaction
• Serial:
  • Highway Research Record
  • Issue Number: 471
  • Publisher: Highway Research Board

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Deterioration; Joints; Least squares method; Markov processes; Mathematical models; Probability theory
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Joint
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Pavements;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00207646
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309022568
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 27 1974 12:00AM