PROBABILISTIC CONCEPTS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS TO AASHO INTERIM GUIDE FOR DESIGN OF RIGID PAVEMENTS

PROBABILISTIC DESIGN CONCEPTS HAVE BEEN APPLIED TO MODIFY THE AASHO INTERIM GUIDE FOR THE DESIGN OF RIGID PAVEMENT STRUCTURES; IT IS NOW POSSIBLE TO DESIGN FOR ANY SPECIFIED LEVEL OF RELIABILITY. THE MAJOR OBJECTIVE FOR APPLYING PROBABILISTIC CONCEPTS TO PAVEMENT DESIGN IS TO MAKE THE DESIGN PROCESS SENSITIVE TO THE MANY VARIABILITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, AND PERFORMANCE OF RIGID PAVEMENTS. THIS PROVIDES A RATIONAL MEANS OF DESIGNING AT VARYING LEVELS OF RELIABILITY DEPENDING ON THE PAVEMENT FUNCTION. THIS METHOD MAKES THE DESIGN PROCESS CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE PRESENT DETERMINISTIC METHOD AND, THEREFORE, UPGRADES THE CURRENT PROCEDURE. VARIANCE MODELS WERE DEVELOPED FOR THE PERFORMANCE EQUATION OF THE AASHO GUIDE TO PREDICT VARIATION IN PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE DUE TO STATISTICAL VARIATIONS IN TRAFFIC ESTIMATION, FLEXURAL STRENGTH AND MODULUS OF ELASTICITY OF CONCRETE, CONCRETE THICKNESS, JOINT CONTINUITY, FOUNDATION MODULUS, INITIAL SERVICEABILITY INDEX, AND LACK OF FIT OF THE AASHO PERFORMANCE EQUATION. ESTIMATES OF THE VARIATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THE VARIABLES LISTED ABOVE ARE OBTAINED BY ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM ACTUAL CONCRETE PAVEMENT PROJECTS. A NEW REVISED NOMOGRAPH IS DEVELOPED TO INCLUDE, AMONG OTHER THINGS, A SCALE FOR RELIABILITY AND A SCALE FOR THE OVERALL VARIANCE DETERMINED BY THE LEVEL OF QUALITY CONTROL EXERCISED, VARIATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DESIGN PARAMETERS, AND ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH TRAFFIC PREDICTIONS. THE VARIANCE MODELS ARE ALSO APPLIED TO DETERMINE THE RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DESIGN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH RIGID PAVEMENT DESIGN AND TO QUANTIFY THE EFFECTS OF QUALITY CONTROL ON PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/hrr/1973/466/466-002.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309022509
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Rigid Pavement Design. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Kher, Ramesh K
  • Darter, Michael I
• Discussers:
  • Refiroiu, Mihai
• Conference:
  • 52nd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1973-1-22 to 1973-1-26
• Publication Date: 1973

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 20-37
• Monograph Title: Pavement systems analyses
• Serial:
  • Highway Research Record
  • Issue Number: 466
  • Publisher: Highway Research Board

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Concrete pavements; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Nomographs; Pavement design; Pavement performance; Probability theory; Quality control; Reliability; Rigid pavements; Variance
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Pavements;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00206130
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309022509
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 15 1974 12:00AM