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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
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    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Predicting Road Accidents: Structural Time Series Approach</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1324373</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This article presents a mathematical model that can be used for determining the occurrence of road crashes in Malaysia between 1970 and 2010.  The model used structural time series to predict the number of road crashes.  The authors established the model using a stepwise method, in which they analyzed the residual of each step. They determined the accuracy of the model by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), then chose the best approach based on the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. The local linear trend model with three components (level, slope, irregular) is hypothesized as the best model to represent the road crashes. The level component indicates the average of road crash events whereas the slope component shows the increasing trends of road crashes. The irregular component models variation of the road crashes from year to year. The authors conclude by adding that their approach may offer useful information for improving the conventional time series method.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2014 14:03:21 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>Some aspects of road safety problems in Bangladesh</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1181919</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In Bangladesh, the rapid rise in population and motorised vehicles together with the large scale shift of transport from other modes to road, without significant development of road traffic system, have generated enormous road safety and operational problems.  The paper is concerned with the road safety problems and the issues relating to them.  It briefly presents an overview of the past trends in the development of road transport system and the numbers of accidents and their resulting casualties.  Some important characteristics of the accidents are discussed.  Factors contributing to the accidents and the government's initiatives for their prevention are summarised.  The paper also outlines a strategy for systematic analysis of accidents in order to determine cost effective countermeasures to global and site specific accident problems. (A)]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2012 03:41:09 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>Trend analysis of Botswana road traffic accidents</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1154900</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper analyses the trends of road accidents in Botswana from 1990 to 2004.  Fatality data were collected from the Department of Road Transport and Safety in Botswana.  Registered vehicles increased steadily by 178 per cent from 1990 to 2004 and the number of accidents increased by 138 per cent.  The fatality rate per 100,000 population and casualty rate per 100,000 population generally increased from 1990 to 2004.  Areas not associated with junctions accounted for over 76 per cent of the total crashes with 89 per cent of such crashes resulting in death.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2012 22:06:22 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>THE MALAYSIAN GOVERNMENT'S ROAD ACCIDENT DEATH REDUCTION TARGET FOR YEAR 2010</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/757937</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Despite a concerted effort to reduce road accident deaths in Malaysia, the nation posted a vehicle accident death rate of 5.6 deaths per 10,000 in 2001, which was behind the world-class standard of 3 deaths per 10,000. This led to the adoption of a new national road safety target, which would be 4 deaths per 10,000 by 2010. In this paper, the authors first offer a projection of the vehicle ownership rate in Malaysia to the year 2010. This projection is then used to predict road accidents in the same year. The authors also include an analysis of past trends in the road accident death rate was conducted. The Gompertz growth model is used for projecting vehicle ownership, while an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with transfer noise function is used for predicting the road accident death rate. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), vehicle ownership, and population growth were also taken into account in the projections. Results from the analysis suggest that a minimum 2.18% reduction is need yearly in order to achieve the national target for 2010.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>ROAD SAFETY AND ACCIDENT TRENDS IN MALAYSIA</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/499544</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The increase in level of motorization in Malaysia which is a natural consequence of the relatively rapid economic growth over the past two decades has not only resulted in the increasing demand on road space and road network expansion but also in increased numbers of road accidents. The vehicle ownership has increased from 13.4 persons per vehicle in 1970 to 2.9 persons per vehicle in 1992. Although several improvements to the public transport facilities are currently underway in the capital city of Kuala Lumpur and its conurbation, the general public would still need to depend heavily on private motor vehicles as the main transport mode. Being relatively cheap, affordable and "reliable", motorcycles form a major share of the motorised vehicle population and motorcyclists for the majority of the road fatalities. Although various strategies and measures have been implemented there seem to be no significant change to the road accident problem in the country. This paper aims to discuss the road safety and road accident situation in Malaysia. An analysis of the past and present trends in road accidents, casualties and fatalities is presented. Differences in accident characteristics between Malaysia and selected developed countries are highlighted and discussed in relation to its implications in developing new strategies. A number of accident trend models that relates accidents and accident fatalities to certain accident exposure variables are also presented. (A) For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 493717.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 06 Apr 1999 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/499544</guid>
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      <title>AN INVESTIGATION ON FATAL ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/474632</link>
      <description><![CDATA[There is great concern on the increase of road traffic accidents in Malaysia, particularly those that result in fatalities. Despite efforts by various government agencies and private organizations to deal with the issue, the death toll due to road traffic accidents seems to continue on an upward trend.  This paper discusses the trends and recent characteristics of fatal road accidents in Malaysia.  Accident rates and fatality indices are also compared with selected developed countries.  The nature of fatal accidents with respect to a number of parameters were analyzed and possible remedial measures proposed.  An accident fatality prediction model developed using a time series approach is also presented.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 10 Dec 1997 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>CONTROL OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN MALAYSIA</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/313863</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper discusses some of the recent trends of road traffic accidents in peninsula Malaysia.  The road traffic accident data were compared to the accident figures from several developed countries.  The graphs show a relatively high accident rate for peninsula Malaysia.  Some estimated values for road traffic accidents in Malaysia are also presented.  Several factors contributing to road accidents are discussed.  Spot speed studies in the urban areas show that most drivers ignore the advisory speed limits.  This behaviour is partly attributable to improved vehicle performance and better road conditions.  Some existing speed limits, which were set long ago, do not seem to take these recent developments into consideration.  The measures taken to check on the problem of over-speeding in Malaysia are mentioned and suggestions proposed to address this problem. It is suggested that the prevention of road traffic accidents due to over-speeding should be tackled by improving the level of training through traffic training centres and use of vehicle simulators.(a)]]></description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 30 Sep 1990 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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