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    <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
    <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs>
    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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      <link>https://trid.trb.org/</link>
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    <item>
      <title>How geopolitical risk affects the market performance of airline stocks?</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2589950</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Given the susceptibility of the aviation industry to events such as terrorist attacks and wars, geopolitical risk must be carefully considered. The study employs the quantile connectedness approach based on sample data from January 2014 to March 2024 to evaluate the dynamic spillover effects between geopolitical risk (GPR) and airline stock returns, further revealing the impact of geopolitical tensions on both normal and extreme market conditions. The research finds that connectivity is especially accentuated during turbulent market environments and is intensified during geopolitical events such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, dynamic analysis further demonstrates that, compared to its peripheral role in normal markets, the relationship between GPR and airline stocks becomes more pronounced during turbulent market environments, and at certain times, with GPR transforming into an emitter at certain points in time. Consequently, the government can formulate policies against geopolitical shocks and ensure the stability of the aviation sector, while investors should carefully assess the associated risks and prudently allocate their investments in airline stocks.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2025 09:33:30 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2589950</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>The impact of oil prices shocks in the valuation of stock prices of aviation companies</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2592401</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study investigates the impact of oil price changes on the market value of the aviation industry. The authors analyze a sample of 121 airlines and 30 airports listed worldwide between 2000Q1 and 2023Q4 and find that overall, oil price changes deteriorate the market value of the aviation industry. However, the marginal effect of oil price changes is more negative for airlines than for airports. When the authors disentangle oil price changes into demand shocks and supply shocks, they find that airlines benefit more from demand shocks, whereas airports are more resilient to supply shocks. The results suggest that oil price changes contribute to a shift in value within the aviation industry, from airlines to airports, and that demand shock and supply shock exert a different impact between airlines and airports.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2025 08:34:15 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2592401</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Productive Highway Capital Stocks and the Contribution of Highways to Growth in GDP: Volume I</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2572894</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The study reaches two conclusions using several different national income accounting measures: the rate of growth of highways is below the rate of growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the nominal share of highways in (adjusted) GDP and (adjusted) U.S. gross output is small. National income accounting measures do not include spillovers, multiplier effects, or the use of highways by other than business or the government. Accordingly, the contribution estimates produced in the report are small compared to many alternative estimates. However, they can be directly compared to Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) contribution estimates.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 22 Sep 2025 12:00:16 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2572894</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>The impact of logistics-manufacturing integration announcement on the stock market value: Evidence from China</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2574554</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Global production trends have increased supply chain complexity and highlighted the importance of logistics-manufacturing integration (LMI). Although stock market performance is a critical indicator for evaluating and supporting the LMI implementation, it remains unclear how LMI implementation affects a company’s stock market performance and which factors can moderate this impact. This study collects LMI implementation announcements of 181 companies (125 manufacturers and 56 third-party logistic providers) in China’s A-share market from October 2002 to September 2024. Using event study methodology to assess the impact of LMI implementation on companies’ stock market performance, the results show that the stock market reacts positively to the LMI implementation. Furthermore, the authors observe the moderating effects of four factors (i.e., specific asset investment, close partnerships, supply chain concentration and innovative logistics services) on the stock market reaction to manufacturers’ LMI implementation. Some interesting results include close partnerships hurt stock market performance of LMI-implementing companies; supply chain concentration has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the stock market performance. In addition, the post-hoc analysis demonstrates that LMI implementation has a positive impact on a company’s operational performance but may negatively affect its financial performance.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2025 09:25:50 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2574554</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The impact of national centralized drug procurement policy on firm performance: Evidence from Chinese pharmaceutical firms</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2559807</link>
      <description><![CDATA[China’s national centralized drug procurement policy, as a form of group purchasing, has successfully improved drug affordability and accessibility through significant price reductions. While prior studies have examined the long-term policy effects on pharmaceutical firms, critical gaps exist in understanding the immediate financial consequences for pharmaceutical firms, and how firm characteristics, supply chain factor, and product market factor moderate the relationship. To address this gap, the authors leverage data from the China Stock Market and Accounting Research (CSMAR) database and the Cninfo and utilize an event study methodology to analyze the policy impact on the financial performance of 205 Chinese pharmaceutical firms in the stock market. The results show that the policy shift led to a significant decrease in firm value by −2.67% on the day of the event, equating to approximately $661 million. Moreover, firms exhibiting higher innovation or sales intensity tend to experience a more pronounced negative impact, while those with a more concentrated supply chain are less vulnerable to regulatory changes. However, the positive role of product internationalization is not significant. The post-hoc analysis reveals that both state-owned and non-state-owned firms experienced notable declines in stock values and this adverse effect has no significant difference between the two kinds of firms. Moreover, the long-term effect analysis indicates that this negative effect can last for one year in the stock market. Their findings shed light on both firm managers and policymakers in developing regulatory adaptation strategies and responding to the impact of this policy shift.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 26 Jun 2025 16:12:27 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2559807</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Geopolitical risks and airlines stock return — Implications to the financial stability of European airlines</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2557133</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study utilizes a time-varying Granger causality test to investigate the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and stock return of main carriers in Europe. While the overall estimations from the entire dataset reveal limited evidence supporting causality between these variables, the rolling-window bootstrapping Granger causality test presents a dynamic pattern that a time-varying causality running from geopolitical risks to airline stock returns. However, within this fluctuating analytical framework, airline stock returns fail to reliably predict geopolitical risks. Finally, the authors offer significant policy implications to the financial stability of European airlines.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 26 Jun 2025 16:12:27 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2557133</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Unveiling Investor Sentiment’s Impact on Dry Bulk Markets</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2563715</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The authors' research focuses on the maritime industry, specifically the dry bulk market, contributing to the emerging research agenda regarding the influence of financial markets on the real economy. Motivated by the documented relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and financial markets, the authors study how different types of investors’ sentiment in the US stock market influence the BDI. Employing Granger causality tests and impulse response functions, the authors examine how investors’ confidence and ensuing liquidity in both the US maritime and the broader US stock markets impact corporate decisions related to freight rates and secondhand vessel investments. The authors' findings highlight the critical role of investor sentiment for stakeholders in the dry bulk market and the significance of the BDI in shaping traders’ investment in the US capital market. Additionally, by comparing the authors' results with previous studies, the authors provide fresh evidence regarding the identity of traders in the maritime capital market. The authors also employ Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to establish the out-of-sample predictive power of the authors' sentiment proxies, positioning them as novel BDI determinants. The results provided align with signal theory, challenge the efficient market hypothesis, and offer valuable insights for optimizing profitability and fostering economic sustainability in various industries.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2025 09:42:57 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2563715</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Gold for global airline stock indices during COVID-19: Hedge or safe-haven asset?</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2526761</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The authors examine whether airline industry investors can gain hedging and/or safe-haven benefits from holding gold in a portfolio of global and regional airline stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily data from June 8, 2016 until June 8, 2021, the authors employ multivariate GARCH models and show partial co-volatility spillovers of negative signs and evidence of weak but unstable correlations between gold and each of the four global/regional airline stock indices. The authors calculate hedge ratios, optimal weights, and hedging effectiveness and reveal that, during the peak of the pandemic, global airline investors expanded their investment in gold as a “flight-to-safety” asset, leading to substantial hedging effectiveness. Finally, the authors run regression models and the results indicate that gold is not a strong safe-haven asset against the downside risk of airline stock indices but acts as a strong hedge in many cases. The findings are robust to the choice of the multivariate GARCH model.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2025 13:31:25 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2526761</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Transmission of oil price risk to airline stock returns: Evidence from China and the United States</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2543962</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper focuses on analyzing the volatility spillover relationship between oil returns and the airline industries in G2 economies (China and the United States) during three major crisis events: U.S.-China trade tensions, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Using asymmetric DCC-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, and continuous wavelet coherence analysis methods, the study examines how these crises impact the volatility between oil and airline stocks. The findings of BEKK-GARCH demonstrate that the oil market's past volatility negatively affected the Chinese airline stocks during COVID-19, with a similar effect observed for the USA during the Russian-Ukraine crisis. The optimal weights offer portfolio diversification during the recent war crises for both. Regarding hedging effectiveness, the airline industries benefit from including oil assets in their portfolios to mitigate risks. The wavelet coherence analysis shows a significant multi-waves in-phase (positive) co-movement for China. The oil-returns and China Xiamen Airline (OR-CHX) correlation is prominent during health and war crises. In the United States, except for OR-southwest Airline (SWT), the co-movement exhibited a counter-cyclical (negative) coherence at a medium scale. Based on these empirical findings, portfolio managers and policymakers should incorporate oil assets into their portfolios as a strategic measure to reduce risk.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 30 May 2025 15:54:04 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2543962</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Dependence structure between energy uncertainty index and airlines stocks returns and volatility: A short communication</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2533873</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study evaluates the performance of interlinks between energy uncertainty index and airlines stock returns and volatility by applying the wavelet coherence analytical methodology. For stock returns, American Airlines exhibits notable lead-lag effects, while Air China and Air France show varied patterns. In terms of volatility, American Airlines' volatility aligns with energy uncertainty across phases. Air France's volatility both leads and lags, and Air China shows minimal co-variation. The policy implications are provided at the end of the study.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 20 May 2025 11:38:18 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2533873</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Impact of Esg Strategies on Growth in the Logistics Industry</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2534969</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The aim of the article is to analyse the relationship between company growth, measured as an increase in Earnings Per Share (EPS) in 3- and 5-year periods, and companies’ financial condition, measured using the Altman z-Score (AS) model. The study was carried out on the example of companies included in the WIG Index and Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (in Polish: Warszawski Indeks Gieldowy – WIG) Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) between 2013 and 2020. Furthermore, among the companies included in the WIG index, companies belonging to the logistics industry were distinguished. An analysis of linear and panel relationships was used to verify the nature of the relationships between the variables taken into account. The z-Altman index was found to have a positive effect on company growth in a 3-year period for companies from the transport and logistics industry and all companies included in the WIG ESG index. Regarding company growth over the longer 5-year period, the influence of the z-Altman index on growth was not observed. Therefore, the results for companies in the WIG index show that for company growth in both the 3- and 5-year periods, the financial and economic condition of a company, measured by the z-Altman index, has no impact on the size of this growth, which was also confirmed by panel models.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2025 16:55:18 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2534969</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The response of the logistics and supply chain industries to two different crises - a Google trends econometric approach</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2509380</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In this paper, the authors test whether Google searches provide useful forecasting ability on some of the biggest logistics and supply chain companies' stocks, during two crises of different origins, namely, the crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 crisis. The authors also examine the spillover effects among these stocks for both periods. Additionally, the authors compare the aforementioned results regarding the two crises. Based on the authors' findings, the examined keywords provide useful information for the forecasting of logistics and supply chain companies' stocks for both crises. Especially for the crisis of COVID-19, Google trends contribute to the forecasting of these stocks' performance, even in some cases that the pandemic data did not provide. Finally, there are spillover effects for both crises, but for the COVID-19 era, spillover effects are less in multitude than those during the crisis of 2008.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 10:12:09 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2509380</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2509590</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This article investigates the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on maritime sector stocks using an event study approach, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during crises. Analyzing 32 companies across container, tanker, and dry bulk sub-sectors, the authors employ the Fama and French three-factor model to assess how maritime stocks respond to conflict-related news. Their findings reveal predominantly adverse stock reactions, particularly in the container and tanker segments, with the dry bulk sub-sector less affected. Notably, container shipping stocks showed significant declines following missile attacks on cargo vessels. Conversely, the market response to positive news, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, was muted, suggesting that good news impacts trading behaviour less than bad news. This study underscores the importance of monitoring news during major crises for theoretical and practical implications in the maritime industry, as it significantly influences stock performance.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 28 Feb 2025 17:12:55 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2509590</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Oil price shocks and airlines stock return and volatility – A GFEVD analysis</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2496641</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Using the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) method, this study assesses the effects of oil price shocks on both the return and volatility of aviation stocks. Specifically, the authors examine how different types of oil supply shocks—such as those related to oil supply, economic activity, oil consumption demand, and oil inventory—impact airline returns and volatility. The authors' findings indicate that fluctuations in airline returns primarily stem from economic activity shocks. However, the volatility of airlines is influenced by a range of shocks. Lastly, the authors offer important policy implications tailored for airline managers, market investors, and policymakers to navigate this relationship effectively.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 21 Feb 2025 17:08:03 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2496641</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Impact of ISSB’s Scope 3 GHG Emissions Validation on US Manufacturers’ Stock Valuations: Analyzing the Role of Supplier Complexity</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2453676</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The International Sustainability Standards Board’s (ISSB’s) validation of Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions disclosure requirements represents a pivotal advancement in sustainability reporting. This study examines the implications of this validation for US-listed manufacturing firms’ stock valuations, taking into account the moderating effect of supplier complexity. Employing the event study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis, the authors' study reveals a positive market response to the ISSB’s validation. Moreover, they observe that supplier concentration complexity and supplier spatial complexity mitigate this positive impact, while supplier horizontal complexity does not exert a significant effect on this positive impact. This highlights the critical role of supply chain optimization in fostering sustainable business practices. Their study contributes to the literature by empirically assessing the impact of Scope 3 emissions disclosure on firm performance and exploring the moderating role of supplier complexity, thereby enhancing their understanding of sustainability disclosures within supply chain operations. Their findings offer crucial insights for manufacturers, investors, and policymakers as they navigate the complex dynamics between sustainability disclosures, supply chain management, and stock valuations.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 13 Dec 2024 17:02:43 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2453676</guid>
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