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    <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
    <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs>
    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
    <image>
      <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
      <url>https://trid.trb.org/Images/PageHeader-wTitle.jpg</url>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/</link>
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    <item>
      <title>Assessing Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption: Methodologies, Policy Effects, and Diverging Market Pathways in China, the U.S., and Europe</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2692147</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Accurate projection of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) market sales share is vital for evidence-based policymaking, yet existing studies employ diverse and often fragmented methodologies, creating a need for a systematic review to clarify their analytical foundations and comparative strengths. This study classifies mainstream approaches to market projections into theory-driven and data-driven categories and reviews the merits, limitations, and future directions of five representative models. Analysis reveals that leading approaches increasingly employ cross-scale model coupling, theory-data fusion, and modular design to harness complementary strengths, improving model robustness and predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study compares PEV policies and market outlooks in China, the United States, and Europe—the world's three largest automotive markets. The findings indicate a strong linkage between projection convergence and policy stability. China demonstrates the highest policy consistency and institutional consensus, with an average projected PEV share of new-vehicle sales of 81.3% by 2030. Europe's projections average 62.8%, driven by binding emissions mandates, whereas the U.S. exhibits greater uncertainty, averaging 31.1% amid fragmented regulations and policy uncertainty. These disparities highlight the decisive role of policy coherence and regulatory predictability in shaping PEV market outlooks.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2026 17:09:30 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2692147</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Dedicated autonomous vehicle lane measure for development of autonomous vehicles: A system dynamics approach</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2669586</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Different from the stage of full use of human-driven vehicles (HDVs) or autonomous vehicles (AVs), the mixed use of AVs and HDVs represents a special transition stage. Interaction between HDVs and AVs presents a challenge for urban transport development, especially during the initial transition stage. Dedicated AV lane (DAVL) measure has been proposed for promoting development of AVs. This study focuses on the impact analysis of implementing DAVL measure under heterogeneous commuting conditions, which are characterised by varying automation levels and evolving AV market share. A system dynamics framework is developed to integrate the DAVL deployment with dynamic shifts in vehicle market adoption and commuting conditions. Specifically, macro-level commuting indicators are examined, i.e., average commuting speed and congestion degree, as AVs with varying automation levels progressively enter the market. Scenario analyses are based on the high-level autonomous driving demonstration zone in Yizhuang new city (YNC) of Beijing, they indicate that DAVL measure has a significant impact on AV market share, and positively influencing AV market development. However, with increasing AV market share, the initially superior commuting performance delivered by DAVL is gradually eroded, manifested by shrinking improvements in average commuting speed and weaker reductions in congestion degree. Moreover, the fixed DAVL approach results in uneven utilisation of road space, i.e., the congestion degree on regular lanes shifts from oversaturation toward underutilisation, whilst the congestion degree on the DAVL shifts from initial underutilisation toward saturation. Furthermore, using scenario analyses, this study examines a flexible DAVL measure that addresses the tension between rapid AVs development and the necessity of maintaining stable commuting conditions. Insights into the implementation of the DAVL measures are provided, which are expected to be applied in YNC and other urban contexts.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 09:40:58 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2669586</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Towards a formalisation scale for urban bus transportation system: The case of Bukavu and its global implications</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2682756</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The formalisation of public transport has been widely studied yet lacks a data-driven quantitative assessment. This study addresses this gap by applying a formalisation scale to various aspects of Bukavu’s bus transport system based on the Public Transport Formalisation Level (PTFL) model. Formalisation indicators are assessed using a point system inspired by a comprehensive methodology used in a previous study. This approach enabled the derivation of a composite index for Bukavu’s public transport system (BPTFL). The composite index indicates a moderate level of formalisation of Bukavu’s current public transport system, with a formalisation index of 43.37%. A more detailed analysis reveals slight variations among the formalisation levels of the Ibanda (46.31%), Kadutu (43.10%), and Bagira (46.38%) municipalities. This observation highlights that a city-wide transport formalisation index serves as an overall indicator, which does not necessarily reflect local disparities. Thus, this scale can be utilised in scientific literature to assess the level of formal or informal options in public transport systems.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:01:17 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2682756</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Forecasting China's shipping indices based on modal decomposition and optimized deep learning integrated model</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2646880</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study proposes an innovative hybrid forecasting model, VMD-CPSO-BiLSTM, which significantly enhances the prediction accuracy of shipping indices in China's maritime sector. The model employs a sophisticated three-phase methodology: (1) decomposition through Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to extract multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from the original time series, effectively capturing its nonlinear and complex patterns; (2) optimization using a Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (CPSO) algorithm to fine-tune the Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network parameters, thereby improving both predictive accuracy and model stability; and (3) integration of predictions from both high-frequency and low-frequency components to generate comprehensive final forecasts. Through extensive empirical validation using key Chinese shipping indices, our proposed model demonstrates superior performance compared to conventional single deep learning models and other hybrid approaches. The results indicate that VMD-CPSO-BiLSTM effectively addresses critical challenges in time series forecasting, including nonlinearity, non-stationarity, and multi-scale characteristics. The developed model offers substantial practical value as a reliable forecasting tool for shipping market trends, providing industry stakeholders with enhanced decision-making support for strategic planning and operational management. Its robust performance and methodological innovation contribute significantly to the field of maritime economics and financial time series analysis.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 22 Apr 2026 16:15:35 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2646880</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Charting the course of space tourism toward a sustainable future. A cross-cluster thematic analysis</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2684523</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Where is space tourism heading for? This elusively simple question is what drives this article. The answer is less straightforward. While the interest in space tourism in all its forms has been steadily growing since 2000s, and the research outputs in the discipline multiplying, there is to date no clear unidirectional way forward, one that has the potential to be sustainable even less. Fault lines have emerged, making an overall evaluation of the sector a complicated feat.Building on a comprehensive review of more than two decades of academic research, this study identifies critical gaps and conceptual roadblocks, proposing a conceptual framework with four key dimensions of future investigation. It highlights the need for a new theoretical paradigm defining the sector, together with environmental sustainability measures, risk mitigation strategies, and affordable improvements within the industry. By addressing critical challenges, this research aims at steering the space tourism industry towards mainstream accessibility, an ethical and responsible approach, long-term environmental and social viability.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:15:39 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2684523</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Review on the Consolidation Process of the Local Bus Operators in Asian Megacities</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2659309</link>
      <description><![CDATA[A Fragmented market of local bus transport can be found in Asian developing countries, and the consolidation of the operators is implemented or proposed to modernize the industry and improve the service quality. Although the benefits of the consolidations have been highlighted and many cities are recommended to implement the consolidation policy, some cities have faced significant difficulties. This study examines consolidation policies in Asian cities from multiple perspectives to explore the background that necessitated these policies, and the implementation schemes adopted. The analysis demonstrates that the examples of the consolidations have various characteristics according to the local condition, and the financial integration may be the critical path for the sustainable operation. Consolidation without the financial transparency of the bus transport business may not be able to resolve unnecessary competition among operators and reach a discussion on the subsidy.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2026 15:20:59 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2659309</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>An integrated S-O-R and B-A-I model to promote electric motorcycles usage rates: a case study in Thailand</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2669889</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study addresses the gap in understanding electric motorcycle adoption in Thailand, integrating the Stimulus-Organism-Response and Beliefs-Attitude-Intention models. We surveyed 1,088 respondents across eight Thai cities using structural equation modeling to examine factors influencing adoption intentions. The results show that positive attitudes significantly shape adoption intentions, with direct impacts from knowledge and incentives. Attitude mediates the effects of product design, innovativeness, and environmental concern on adoption while partially mediating between knowledge, incentives, and intention. These findings reveal unique adoption dynamics in Thailand, where practical considerations outweigh environmental concerns. The study provides insights for policymakers and marketers, suggesting that education and targeted incentives may be more effective than emphasizing environmental benefits in promoting electric motorcycle adoption in similar developing markets.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2026 15:15:51 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2669889</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Does one size fit all? Examining heterogeneous pathways to electric vehicle adoption readiness</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2667080</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The readiness of automotive dealerships plays a pivotal role in advancing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, particularly in emerging economies such as Indonesia. This study explores internal organizational determinants that influence the preparedness of Indonesian automotive dealerships to adopt EVs, taking into account variations in brand origins and organizational structures. Drawing on data from a cross-sectional survey of 1,136 dealership branches and 170 head offices, the research applies Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to uncover that transformational leadership is a key driver of adoption readiness in traditional dealerships where structured support systems and managerial autonomy coexist. In contrast, dealerships associated with Korean brands and those emphasizing hybrid vehicles are more dependent on resource coordination and knowledge absorption due to their limited strategic flexibility. The study introduces the HETER EV Framework to demonstrate how different combinations of organizational support, leadership, resource utilization, and knowledge management create distinct pathways to readiness. The results challenge the notion of universal strategies and underscore the necessity of tailoring interventions to specific brand structures and strategic contexts. By focusing on the Indonesian dealership landscape, the study adds to the Resource-Based View and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, while advocating for more localized and brand-specific approaches to support the EV transition. Further research is encouraged to examine dealerships in other countries to assess the global applicability of these insights.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2026 09:00:01 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2667080</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Aviation e-fuel mandates: balancing average and minimum requirements for emission reduction</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2616270</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper examines a policy design to regulate the airline industry’s use of e-fuel, a type of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). We compare three policy approaches: an average policy that regulates only the average e-fuel usage; a minimum policy that mandates only the minimum e-fuel usage per sub-period; and a dual policy that enforces both average e-fuel usage over a period and minimum e-fuel usage in each sub-period. Using a two-period model, we evaluate these policies in terms of emission reduction and their impact on aviation outputs and e-fuel utilization. Our findings reveal that the average and minimum policies are equivalent in emission reduction efficiency (ERE), defined as the ratio of emission reduction under these policies to that under the dual policy. The ERE is influenced by market fluctuations, with larger fluctuations reducing the ERE to a minimum of 50%. We also explore the implications of incomplete information on policy design. When the government lacks information about future market growth, average e-fuel usage increases under low growth scenarios, though the minimum e-fuel requirement under the dual policy remains unaffected. Interestingly, under incomplete market information, the average or minimum policy may outperform the dual policy in emission reduction. Furthermore, even with incomplete information on e-fuel costs, the first-best outcomes achievable under complete information can still be realized, even when e-fuel costs are high. Our theoretical findings are validated through model calibrations, which provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to optimize e-fuel mandates for emission reduction.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2026 08:53:26 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2616270</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>North American Carsharing: A Ten-Year Retrospective</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2628210</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Carsharing (or short-term auto use) organizations provide members access to a fleet of shared vehicles on an hourly basis, reducing the need for private vehicle ownership. This paper reflects a ten-year retrospective of carsharing in Canada and the United States (U.S.), including results from a 2008 operator survey. Since 1994, a total of 50 carsharing programs have been deployed in North America - 33 are operational and 17 are defunct. As of July 1, 2008, there are 14 active programs in Canada and 19 in the U.S., with approximately 319,000 carsharing members sharing over 7,500 vehicles in North America. Another six programs are planned to launch in North America by January 2009. The four largest providers in the U.S. and Canada support 99% and 95.2% of total membership, respectively. In this ten-year retrospective, the authors examine North America's carsharing evolution from initial market entry and experimentation (1994 to mid-2002) to growth and market diversification (mid-2002 to late-2007) to commercial mainstreaming (late-2007 to present). This evolution includes increased competition, new market entrants, program consolidation, increased market diversification, capital investment, technological advancement, and greater inter-operator collaboration. Ongoing growth and competition are forecasted. Rising fuel costs and increased climate change awareness will likely facilitate this expansion.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 16:15:22 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2628210</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Consumer preferences evolution for electric vehicles under fiscal incentives and technological progress</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2636413</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Analyzing the evolution of heterogeneous consumer preferences for electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial for accurately identifying consumer demands and market development stages. Based on model-level monthly sales data from the Chinese automotive market between 2017 and 2023, this study employs a random coefficient discrete choice model with aggregated data to examine the evolution of revealed consumer preferences for EVs across multiple dimensions, including price, energy type, and vehicle specifications. Counterfactual analysis is also conducted to disentangle the impacts of fiscal incentives and technological progress on EV adoption. The results indicate that consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness and fuel economy. EV preferences have risen rapidly over the past seven years, showing a trend toward premiumization. Battery electric vehicles provide a more stable consumer utility. Notably, fiscal incentives effectively stimulate consumers’ purchase intentions, while technological progress serves as the fundamental driving force behind the long-term growth of the EV market.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 23 Dec 2025 13:31:16 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2636413</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Toward mobility incentive: Integrating green service and carbon inclusion scheme into the ride-hailing market</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2604747</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Increasing individual responsibility for reducing emissions is a potentially effective way to address mobility sustainability issues. In recent years, the carbon inclusion scheme has been widely implemented to incentivize individual low-carbon travel behaviors. Motivated by the practice, this paper examines the ride-hailing market that integrates the green service with the carbon inclusion scheme to comprehend how the government-led carbon inclusion scheme affects the operation of the ride-hailing market and the prospects of reducing carbon emissions and promoting electrification. We propose two product strategies for the ride-hailing platform: (a) One-product strategy with mixed service provided by electric vehicles (EVs) and fuel vehicles (FVs); and (b) Differentiated-product strategy with green service provided by EVs and basic service provided by FVs. We also consider the significant differences in adopting electric buses in different countries/regions when discussing the impact of carbon inclusion on the ride-hailing market. Our findings indicate that without government-led carbon inclusion, it is more appropriate for the ride-hailing platform to adopt the one-product strategy. With government-led carbon inclusion, when the electrification rate of external public transportation is not very high, and the carbon incentive is high enough, the platform can improve its profit by adopting the differentiated-product strategy. Considering the platform's profit maximization decisions, our analysis also highlights that when the electrification rate of the external option is low and the carbon incentive is high, the impact of the carbon inclusion scheme on the ride-hailing market is better in all aspects, which is a win-win outcome that the ride-hailing platform, drivers, and the government would all like (if the government wants to see better driver welfare, electrification and carbon reduction in the ride-hailing market). Additionally, increasing the potential number of EVs in the ride-hailing market and the total number of drivers makes sense both for the platform (to gain higher profits) and government (which may be concerned about increasing driver welfare, the electrification rate and total carbon reduction of the ride-hailing market). The gained managerial insights provide decision support for the platform operating differentiated services and the government implementing carbon inclusion schemes.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2025 16:07:14 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2604747</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Entry and market dynamics: The impact of low-cost carriers in China</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2603797</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper examines the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on the pricing strategies of full-service carriers (FSCs) in the Chinese airline market. We first analyze the effect of LCC presence and find that LCCs exert significant downward pressure on FSC fares, with the magnitude of this impact varying across carriers and routes. Next, we explore the dynamic responses of incumbent FSCs to the entry and the threat of entry by LCCs. Our findings reveal that FSCs begin lowering fares well in advance of LCC entry, with fare reductions of approximately 11 %–18 % occurring as early as the 8th quarter before entry. The fare reductions intensify as the entry date approaches and persist beyond it. On the other hand, FSCs do not seem to respond to LCC entry threats. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the dynamic pricing responses of FSCs rather than relying solely on LCC presence which is commonly used in the literature studying Chinese LCCs.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2025 16:07:14 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2603797</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The application of the ARIMA model for time series air freight forecasting</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2593714</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In recent years, air freight has attracted vigorous attention among scholars due to its continuous growth and importance in decision making. Developing an accurate forecast for the air cargo market is essential for empowering planning processes and providing guidance for the air cargo industry's key stakeholders. Nevertheless, only a few research papers have been developed to tackle this topic. Hence, this study is devoted to applying the automated algorithm from the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling to predict time series data of air cargo outbound in eight geographical regions. The experimental findings show good performance of the selected models to be used for accurate predictions. The goodness of fit of the candidates' models is assessed based on different statistical key indicators. The results provide a useful prediction basis for the air cargo market and emphasise the future performance of air freight over the next years.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 18 Nov 2025 11:04:20 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2593714</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Survey and Analysis of External Factors as Challenges to the Adoption of Commercial Electric Vehicles in the Freight Transport Industry</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2592145</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Expanding the commercial use of electric vehicles is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in the automobile transportation sector. This study conducted questionnaire surveys targeting two groups: general freight transport companies and those already using electric vehicles, to compare their perceptions of electric vehicles and usage practices. The findings identified external factors that could be challenges to the broader adoption of commercial electric vehicles, such as performance of existing electric vehicles, availability of chargers, and concerns by transport companies.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 30 Oct 2025 13:26:43 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2592145</guid>
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