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    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Pilot Willingness to Take Off into Marginal Weather, Part II: Antecedent Overfitting with Forward Stepwise Logistic Regressions</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/761957</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Adverse weather is the leading cause of fatalities in general aviation (GA).  In prior research, influences of ground visibility, cloud ceiling height, financial incentive, and personality were tested on 60 GA pilots' willingness to take off into simulated adverse weather.  Results suggested that pilots did not see "weather" as a monolithic cognitive construct but, rather, as an interaction between its separate factors.  However, methodological issues arose during the use of logistic regression in modeling the effect of 60+ candidate predictors on the outcome variable of takeoff into adverse weather.  It was found quite possible to obtain false "significance" for models comprised merely of random numbers, even when the number of model predictors was limited to a conventional 1/10.  Therefore, Monte Carlo simulations were used to derive unbiased estimates of model significance and R(squared) values.  Research in correction for this case/candidate predictor ratio effect is relatively new and noteworthy, particularly in the social sciences.  It was given the name "antecedent overfitting" to contrast with the more commonly known "postcedent" type, which is based on a small case/model predictor ratio.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 26 Oct 2005 09:15:59 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>The Influence of Visibility, Cloud Ceiling, Financial Incentive, and Personality Factors on General Aviation Pilots' Willingness to Take Off into Marginal Weather, Part I: The Data and Preliminary Conclusions</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/756175</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Adverse weather is the leading cause of fatalities in general aviation (GA).  In this research, influences of ground visibility, cloud ceiling height, financial incentive, and personality were tested on 60 GA pilots' willingness to take off into simulated adverse weather.  Results suggested that pilots do not see "weather" as a monolithic cognitive construct but, rather, as an interaction between its separate factors.  This was supported by the finding that the multiplicative statistical effect of visibility and ceiling could better predict takeoff than could the linear effect of either variable considered separately.  Also found was a statistical trend toward financial incentive being able to predict takeoffs.  However, non of the 10 personality tests (incorporating over 500 separate response items) could predict takeoff.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 02 Jun 2005 10:32:43 GMT</pubDate>
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