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    <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
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    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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      <title>Unpacking Oil Market Shocks: The Asymmetric Impact of Sanctions and OPEC on the Tanker Shipping Market</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2743219</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Global energy security depends not only on price stability but also on the physical resilience of the logistics network. While existing studies extensively cover the price transmission of oil shocks, they often treat these shocks as homogeneous, overlooking how different institutional interventions disrupt the physical flow of crude oil. This study addresses this gap by distinguishing between politically motivated Sanction shocks and strategically coordinated OPEC shocks. Using a text-based identification strategy within a structural proxy VAR framework, we quantify their asymmetric effects on the crude oil tanker market indicators, including tanker freight rates, floating storage, and port activity. The results reveal asymmetries. The OPEC shocks are consistent with a market clearing channel, where production signals are associated with inventory drawdowns and a release of vessel capacity. In contrast, the Sanction shocks are consistent with a source of logistical friction, associated with depressed spot trade flows and a persistent accumulation of floating storage. This conversion of transport capacity into static warehousing represents a deadweight loss in the supply chain. These findings suggest that traditional energy security frameworks underestimate the risk of logistical paralysis during geopolitical conflicts. We provide actionable insights for policymakers to incorporate floating storage metrics into early warning systems for monitoring hidden inventories constrained by sanctions.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 14:02:29 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2743219</guid>
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      <title>Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1714549</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The decisions made by petroleum producers in the world oil market are both dynamic and strategic, and are thus best modeled as a dynamic game. In the first chapter of my dissertation, I review the literature on the world oil market and discuss my research on econometric modeling of the world oil market as a dynamic game. My research on econometric modeling of the world oil market as a dynamic game research builds on the previous literature by combining three erstwhile separate dimensions of modeling the world oil market: dynamic optimization, game theory, and econometrics.  In the second chapter of my dissertation, I develop and estimate a structural econometric model of the dynamic game among petroleum-producing firms in the world petroleum market. My model incorporates the dynamic behavior and strategic interactions that arise as petroleum-producing firms make their investment, production, merger, and acquisition decisions. I allow firms that are at least partially state-owned to have objectives other than profit maximization alone. I use the structural econometric model to analyze the effects of changes in OPEC membership, a ban on mergers, the privatization of state-owned oil companies, and demand shocks on the petroleum industry. Although I do not assume or impose that OPEC producers collude to maximize joint profits, but instead infer the strategy and payoffs for OPEC firms from the data, I find that OPEC behaves in such a way that is consistent with its mission and also with cartel behavior. Results of counterfactual simulations also show that a ban on mergers would decrease average firm payoff for both OPEC and non-OPEC firms, and decrease consumer surplus. Gasoline taxes have been touted by many economists as an efficient and relatively simple tool to address environmental concerns and other problems associated with gasoline consumption. Nevertheless, rather than removing subsidies and increasing gasoline taxes, many countries still subsidize gasoline, which may have the opposite effect of exacerbating air pollution and other problems asiii sociated with gasoline consumption. The Iranian government has heavily subsidized petroleum products since the early 1980s. As a result of these energy subsidies and artificially low national energy price, Iran is one of the most energy-intensive countries in the world. The Iranian government has recently taken a series of measures to reform and cut back on the energy subsidies. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I evaluate the effects of the Iranian subsidy reform on air quality using a regression discontinuity design. My results provide evidence across multiple different empirical specifications that the subsidy reform in Iran led to improvements in air quality. In particular, the first subsidy reform event, which increased gasoline prices and implemented a gasoline consumption quota; and the second subsidy reform event, which increased energy prices and decreased energy subsidies, both led to declines in concentrations of CO, O3, and NO2. In contrast, the fourth subsidy reform event, which increased fuel prices but removed the gasoline consumption quota, was less effective in reducing air pollution]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2020 12:21:13 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1714549</guid>
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      <title>OPEC and Its Role in Oil and Energy Market</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1100598</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The prospect for energy consumption in a global level takes into account the fact that the energy sector operates in a globalized environment in such a way that regional or local analysis prove inadequate.  Oil, without doubt, still has the dominant role as energy material, affecting with its variations the growth level of all countries to a greater or lesser degree.  The aim of this article is the presentation of energy consumption scenarios and the examination of the role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in terms of supply.  Furthermore, issues of importance in the exploitation of OPEC member-states oil reserves are analyzed, so that conclusions can be made regarding the policy of the organization for the immediate future.  The authors analyze International Energy Association (World Economic Outlook) energy scenarios, the POLES model, as well as the structure of OPEC member-states regarding production and exploitation of reserves.  The authors conclude that the role of OPEC, however impaired, still remains significant in the global energy scene, whereas the wane of its role can be the outcome of either the liberalization of its member-states' economies or by the opening of new markets of adequate volume and capacity so as to counterbalance global oil demand.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Apr 2011 07:36:20 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1100598</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/869489</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This report presents a summary of the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of planning, analyzing and forecasting for global energy transitions and their environmental and economic  consequences. A specific case focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global environment and the global economy. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to plan, analyze and predict for such massive change. Leading energy models from around the world in academia, government, and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to predict and analyze large-scale energy transitions.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:39:42 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/869489</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>RECENT NATIONWIDE DECLINES IN CARPOOLING. CHAPTER 2, VOLUME II TRAVEL MODE SPECIAL REPORTS - IN: 1990 NPTS SPECIAL REPORTS</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/743158</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper discusses the recent decline in carpooling in the United States.  Carpooling first appeared on the national scene during the forties, when oil and rubber shortages dictated a more sparing use of private vehicles for personal transportation. After World War II, carpooling was quickly dropped as a national policy concern.  Carpooling did not reappear until the mid 1970s, when oil crises, stimulated by the cartelization of the international oil market under the leadership of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), renewed our national interest in alternatives to driving alone.  In the 1980s, suburban employment in addition to suburban residences boomed, and carpooling declined.  By the end of the decade, the 1990 U.S. Census and the 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) confirmed that the national stock of carpools had fallen dramatically just as many of the most ambitious and innovative programs to promote increased carpooling had been put in place. What led to this result?  Critics of mandatory trip reduction ordinances pointed to significant social and demographic changes in the composition of the general commuting public and the continuing rapid evolution of automotively inspired urban form in U.S. towns and cities.  Increasing numbers of women in the labor force, the baby boomlet, the random scattering of trip destinations among edge cities and other suburban employment activity centers, and the increasingly time compressed and therefore complex travel patterns of urbanites and suburbanites in the 1980s and1990s all contributed to the demise of carpooling in the United States. The observed decline in carpooling was not related in any way, however, to economic principles.  Pricing was not relevant to carpool formation.  The gradual shift in the dissipation of urban densities and energies toward suburban and exurban areas made it increasingly difficult to find carpool partners.  Social and demographic trends toward the nuclearization of ever-smaller families with increasing time commitments made carpooling irrelevant because it was less responsive to the real and pressing travel needs of U.S. families.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 11 Nov 2004 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/743158</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>AN ANALYSIS OF SEASONALITY OF NON-OPEC SUPPLY</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/742314</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study first aims to determine whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply follow a seasonal pattern. Once mathematically established, it is then attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the forecast yearly average into quarterly averages. A set of historical data comprised of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals, and the aggregate non-OPEC supply for the period 1973-2002 forms the basis of the analysis. The study applies Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the years 2000-02 by applying the X-11 decomposition method to the historical annual averages. Accuracy of the results of the application of X-11 is then tested. It is demonstrated that the combination of the Fourier and X-11 methods provides mostly acceptable and, in some cases such as that of China, impressively accurate forecast quarterly supply averages.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 13 Oct 2004 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/742314</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>RL30459: COPING WITH HIGH OIL PRICES: A SUMMARY OF OPTIONS</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/671564</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Owing to a tightness in crude oil supply and accelerated drawdown of oil inventories, the price of home heating oil in the Northeast and diesel fuel rose sharply during the winter of 1999-2000.  Gasoline prices soon followed.  In the weeks prior to a scheduled late March meeting in Vienna, some Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers indicated an inclination to raise production, but there was no firm consensus how much they might be inclined to boost it, or what the schedule for these increases would be.  In the meantime, concerns were raised that additional production might reach markets too late to ward off even higher prices for gasoline in the spring and summer.  The Clinton Administration resisted any high profile intervention that would affect prices, preferring instead to try to persuade OPEC to agree to raise the oil production targets that had been agreed to in March 1999.  On March 28, 2000, OPEC agreed to boost production.  While some expect production worldwide to increase roughly 2.0 million barrels daily as a result, many continue to press for action from Congress and the Administration that would provide some relief from high prices, and forestall a similar doubling in fuel prices in the future. Among these have been; lifting a portion of the federal excise tax on gasoline - or all of it if the price exceeds a specified threshold (S. 2285, H.R. 3749, H.R. 4111); assistance to domestic producers, and reconsideration of opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to leasing; legislation to impose sanctions on nations determined by the President to be engaged in oil price fixing (H.R. 3822); drawdown, or a "swap" of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), an option which the Administration has strongly resisted; establishment of a regional reserve of home heating oil (S. 2047, H.R. 3608), endorsed by the President on March 18, 2000, and passed by the House on April 12, 2000, in H.R. 2884; and approving an additional $600 million in emergency funds (H.R. 3908) for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP).  Some argue that intervention in markets to affect prices is unwarranted in the present situation, and that high prices are temporary and are, in the meantime, attracting product to where it is needed.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2001 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/671564</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>COSTS OF OIL DEPENDENCE: A 2000 UPDATE</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/688683</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States.  World oil prices leapt from $10 per barrel in January of 1999 to $30 per barrel in the summer of 2000, as a direct consequence of supply restraint by the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) cartel. Estimates of the total economic costs to the United States of such oil market upheavals during the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period.  Transportation is at the center of the oil dependence issue.  More than 25 years after the first world oil crisis in 1973-74, the U.S. transportation system comprises 67% of the U.S. petroleum demand (25% of world oil demand) and relies on oil for more than 95% of its energy needs.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 16 Jul 2001 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/688683</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>FUTURE WORLD OIL PRICES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TRANSPORTATION FUELS</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/674365</link>
      <description><![CDATA[World petroleum demand is projected to continue increasing after the world enters the 21st century.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts low world oil prices for the indefinite future despite an expected 54% rise in consumption by the year 2020.  In its reference case, EIA also assumes an 80% increase in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production over the same time period.  In contrast to this, a popular world oil market projection model demonstrates that OPEC could increase its production profitability significantly by substantially slowing the rate of its expanded production.  However, OPEC's potential market control also is influenced by the prospective availability of fuels produced from natural gas, especially remote unconventional natural gas resources.  The unconventional natural gas resource is potentially enormous compared with all other fossil fuels combined.  Considerations of energy security, greenhouse gas curtailment, emissions control, and cost will act to dictate widespread production and use of these unconventional reserves. Estimates are provided for the amount of alternatives that might be available at various oil prices.  Because of cost considerations, much of this added production is likely to occur outside the United States.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 12 Jan 2001 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/674365</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. OIL DEPENDENCE</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/448033</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Market share that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lost in defending higher prices from 1979 to 1985 is being steadily regained and is projected to exceed 50 percent by the year 2000.  World oil markets are likely to be as vulnerable to monopoly influence as they were 20 years ago, as OPEC regains lost market share.  The United States (U.S.) economy appears to be as exposed as it was in the early 1970s to losses from monopoly oil pricing.  A simulated 2-year supply reduction in 2005-6 boosts OPEC revenues by roughly half a trillion dollars and costs the U.S. economy an approximately equal amount.  The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be of little help against such a determined, multi-year supply curtailment either in reducing OPEC revenues or protecting the U.S. economy.  Increasing the price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the U.S. and the rest of the world, however, would be an effective strategy.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 1995 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/448033</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>MINERALS TRANSPORTATION: VOLUME 3</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/157222</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Topics explored in detail include: OPEC and ocean transportation; Unusual problems of handling and transporting specific commodities such as china clay and spodumene; Improvements in bulk terminal sulphur handling; Relative costs of alternative modes of ocean transport of coal; The 62-mile Sahara phosphate conveyor system and the disposal of oil sands tailings at the McMurray formation in Alberta.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 1981 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/157222</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>INTERNATIONAL ENERGY STATISTICAL REVIEW</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/149743</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The International Energy Statistical Review provides current information and comparisons with recent years for a variety of topics on international energy; almost all concern some aspect of the petroleum and natural gas industries.  Six charts deal respectively with total Free World oil production, OAPEC oil production, non-Arab oil production, Free World and USSR oil production, inland oil consumption, and net oil imports.  In general, the time period covers the last four or five years.  The remainder of the Review is made up of 31 tables, covering such disparate topics as production, capacity, reserves, trade, consumption, and stocks.  Areas covered include the world, Free World, OPEC, OAPEC, OECD, selected developed countries, Western Europe, China, USSR, and Eastern Europe.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 26 Jun 1980 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/149743</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>TANKER REVIEW: THE END OF AN ERA</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/153373</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Lloyd's Shipping Economist has used two powerful computer-programs to unravel what has happened in the medium and large sectors of the tanker market.  Firstly, supply and demand trends in each sector of the tanker market have been identified by creating pictures of the employment of the different tanker fleets.  Demand has been calculated by deducting the surpluses (laid up vessels and the slow steaming elements of the fleets) from the respective supplies.  Secondly, changes in trading patterns have been analysed using Lloyd's Shipping Economist's statistics on tanker and combined carrier sailings from the major exporting and importing regions of the world.  Some important insights into developments in the tanker and combined carrier sailings from the major exporting and importing regions of the world.  Some important insights into developments in the tanker market have emerged from this analysis.  In the medium size range, the rapidly growing importance of the new oil exporting areas such as North and West Africa, combined with a gradual reduction in the tonnage of this ageing fleet, has resulted in a significant convergence between supply and demand.  For the VLCC and ULCC sector, the confused oil supply situation following the Iranian revolution, and the oil majors' continuing loss of control over crude production, has led to a surge in demand for these ships.  The uncertain future of the tanker market is also probed.  It is forecast that the inefficiencies which have emerged, particularly in the VLCC sector, are permanent features of a new market structure. Prospects for medium size tankers look promising but much depends on the development of "super ports" in the US, and the widening/deepening of the Suez Canal.  But all predictions could prove futile if another political storm were to blow up the oil world.  In this issue recent and future trends in the medium-size tanker and VLCC/ULCC sectors have been analysed in detail.  The February edition will contain a review of the products tanker market.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 07 May 1980 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/153373</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A PRICING POLICY FOR OPEC LPG</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/143455</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Although 78% of all associated gas is presently being flared, OPEC nations have been developing major export schemes which could bring the total export of LPG to over 1 million b/d by the mid-1980s.  The market situation, OPEC export availability, LPG price in terms of general principles and objectives, and basic elements of the LPG pricing mechanism are described.  Panel discussion.  Order from NSFI as No. 18434.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 1980 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/143455</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>CRUDE OIL SUPPLY AND TANKER DEMAND</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/144238</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The aim of this report is to explain the existing relationship between crude oil supply and tanker demand and to examine the likely effects that an expansion in short-haul crude oil trades will have on this relationship. Section 1 examines world oil production and consumption in 1977 and the inroads that the recent expansion in short-haul movements have already made into the long-haul trades of the more traditional, marginal producers.  Section 2 reviews the future development plans of the major oil producers and estimates from this data the potential changes in production levels over the period 1978-1985 whilst Section 3 inspects these changes and their likely repercussions in tanker demand.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 11 Feb 1980 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/144238</guid>
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