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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
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    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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      <title>Baltic Exchange index changes and FFA hedging efficiency</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1739866</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The authors investigate how changes in the composition of the underlying Baltic index affect the hedging efficiency of Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) on composite regional routes. The authors evaluate the hedging efficiency using minimum variance hedge ratios and naïve hedge ratios, both within and across sub-periods between 2006 and 2018, and assess whether index changes have a statistically significant impact using bootstrapping techniques and bias-corrected confidence intervals. Their findings suggest that the trend of adding more routes, reducing the weights of constituent routes, does not reduce hedging efficiency. The authors suggest that the co-integration between individual routes, and between spot rates and FFA prices, make Baltic Exchange index changes largely irrelevant with regard to hedging efficiency.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Nov 2020 17:01:35 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1739866</guid>
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      <title>Development of Integrated Vehicle and Fuel Scenarios in a National Energy System Model for Low Carbon U.S. Transportation Futures</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1567499</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Transportation is a major emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States accounting for 27% of the country’s emissions, second only to the electricity sector (EPA, 2018). As a result, reducing GHG emissions are essential for mitigating some of the most damaging potential impacts associated with climate change and because of the importance and relative size of the transportation sector, it would need to contribute a significant amount of emissions reduction. This report describes the development and use of an U.S. energy system optimization model (US-TIMES) in order to analyze the reductions in GHG emissions that can come about through policy targets. These policy targets induce technology investments and operation in order to satisfy the demand for energy services and environmental policy constraints (notably GHG emission targets). The model development focused on two key areas within the transportation sector, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. In the light-duty space, the authors incorporated consumer choice elements into the energy system optimization framework through increasing consumer heterogeneity and adding non-monetary decision factors such as risk and fueling inconvenience. For heavy-duty vehicles, the authors adopt a segmentation approach and update vehicle cost and performance assumptions from their recent work.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2018 15:43:24 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1567499</guid>
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      <title>Shipping risk management practice revisited: A new portfolio approach</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1507109</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The international shipping industry is susceptible to heightened market volatility manifested in significant freight rate fluctuations and thus diversifying and hedging the associated risks have become central to shipping business practice. Building on the extant literature on shipping freight derivatives, this study develops a portfolio-based methodological framework aiming to improve freight rate risk management. The study also offers, for the first time, evidence of the hedging performance of the recently developed container freight futures market. The authors' approach utilises portfolios of container, dry bulk and tanker freight futures along with corresponding portfolios of physical freight rates in order to improve the efficacy of risk diversification for shipping market practitioners. The empirical findings uncovered in this study have important implications for overall business, commercial, and hedging strategies in the shipping industry, while they can ultimately lead to a more liquid and efficient freight futures market.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2018 09:08:48 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1507109</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Building sustainable transport futures for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1426316</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) urgently needs a more sustainable, low-carbon transport system. The objective of this paper is to elicit ways of building sustainable, low-carbon transport futures for such a system. Using stakeholder narratives as basis, this paper identifies the main driving forces shaping sustainable transport futures, develops four plausible transport scenarios for the MCMA; and assesses whether stakeholders frame driving forces in a certain way.  Driving forces stakeholders identified focused especially on cooperation among political entities and negotiation levels with internal transport stakeholders. Further driving forces included regulatory framework of vehicle use, recognition of sustainable transport as political priority, and urban growth and planning. Four scenarios based on political cooperation and internal negotiation were generated using stakeholder narratives. Three stand out: Scenario 1, where both political cooperation and internal negotiation develop positively, leading to low-emission, sustainable transport futures in the city; Scenario 3, the ‘worst’ scenario, where neither political cooperation nor internal negotiation function, is frequently identified by stakeholders as the way it is now; and Scenario 4 with functioning political cooperation and a lack of internal negotiation is the most unstable scenario and would quickly collapse were it to develop.  Overall, stakeholders framed driving forces as more political than technological (e.g. political cooperation was seen as more relevant than upgrading vehicle technologies). Consensus regarding this reached across institutional stakeholder categories. The authors found that stakeholders’ views gave unique insights regarding how to build sustainable, low-carbon MCMA transport futures, including policy measures and interventions needed. MCMA scenarios developed reveal the need for common political ground as a priority to guide decision making towards sustainable, low-carbon transport futures for the MCMA.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 31 Oct 2016 09:09:55 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1426316</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Potential Reductions in Emissions and Petroleum Use in Transportation: Perspectives from the Transportation Energy Futures Project</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1242593</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The use of energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy sources in transportation could reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions, but these approaches may face challenges in consumer adoption, infrastructure requirements, and resource constraints. The Transportation Energy Futures project of the U.S. Department of Energy reviewed opportunities for significant reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. On the basis of that review, a diverse set of strategies is explored: reduced energy intensity of transportation modes, lower use intensity of motorized transport, and reduced carbon or petroleum intensity through the use of electricity and hydrogen from renewable energy as well as the use of biofuels. Energy efficiency and demand-side approaches could stop the growth in total transportation energy. In the light-duty vehicle sector, growth in energy use already is projected to flatten; the deployment of technologies for energy efficiency could limit growth in the non-light-duty sector. Travel reduction and built environment changes could moderate personal transportation demand. Freight mass reductions and mode switching could slow or stabilize freight demand. Vehicles using electricity or hydrogen could enable access to renewable energy resources other than biomass. Challenges in fueling infrastructure expansion and market uptake of advanced vehicles are considered. Competition for biomass also is explored, considering markets for electricity, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel. The potential for the implementation of these strategies to displace U.S. petroleum use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector is discussed along with the barriers to realizing this potential in the market.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jan 2014 11:45:25 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1242593</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>The Implications of Discount Rate Reductions on Transport Investments and Sustainable Transport Futures</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/914122</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The effects of reducing the discount rate used in evaluations of initiatives funded from the National Land Transport Fund (NLTF) were assessed during 2007–2009. Over 160 projects across a range of project types were collated and the relative effects of different discount rates were documented.  As lower discount rates are applied, the demands on the budget become greater, and every dollar in the budget becomes more valuable.  Thus any project that releases an extra dollar of cost is valued more than any project that produces an extra dollar of benefit.  A lower discount rate would probably be most favourable to initiatives that reduce the total cost of maintaining and operating the network, and are favourable to major long-lasting infrastructure investments. Initiatives with large future operating and maintenance costs decrease in relative priority.  The NLTF is now funded from hypothecated transport revenues, so raising revenues is more likely to displace private consumption than private investment.  Therefore, using a social time preference rate is most appropriate.  This might range from 3–5% real rather than the current 8% real, with 4% being appropriate.  However, the final decision should lie with policy makers rather than economists, given the normative judgements required.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 19 Mar 2010 09:58:35 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/914122</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Meeting the standard</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/905925</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Subtitle: David Chopping explains the challenge facing those seeking to hedge-account their Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs).]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 08:14:51 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/905925</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>DeFazio seeks to tax oil futures contracts to add highway funds, curb speculation</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/898040</link>
      <description><![CDATA[]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:36:55 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/898040</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Sound the all clear</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/888446</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Subtitle: Hidden among the dire economic news is a timely report that suggests that at least one shipping-related business -- freight derivatives -- is doing OK, writes Julian Macqueen.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 13:29:09 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/888446</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Clearing up</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/869850</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Subtitle: To cynics, freight forward agreements might still just be a fancy way of placing a bet, but they are gaining ground and attracting interest from some major, financial players, writes Julian Macqueen.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 04 Sep 2008 07:55:34 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/869850</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Making FFAs available to all</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/845219</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Subtitle: The market in freight forward agreements is now so big that it is influencing what happens in the physical freight markets. Mikal B³eı, managing director of Singapore-based IMAREX Asia, explains why and looks at what might happen next.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 09:46:57 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/845219</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Seeing into the future</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/808286</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Subtitle: Do freight capacity futures have a place in the supply chain? A former HP logistics exec thinks so.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 May 2007 15:06:13 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/808286</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Index issues</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/764661</link>
      <description><![CDATA[]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 17 Nov 2005 09:44:37 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/764661</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURES. IN: HANDBOOK OF TRANSPORT AND THE ENVIRONMENT</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/690283</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Planning for sustainable environmental futures cannot be treated in isolation separate from the overall planning process of which it is a part. Herein, the planning process is defined as the statutory system that regulates the development process which brings forward proposals for the use and development of land. The aim of this chapter is to identify the principles under which planners manage the development process, how those principles reflect the adoption of sustainable development, and, through the medium of selected transport-related case studies, explore attempts to deliver sustainable environmental futures.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2004 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/690283</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>CONSTANT VS. TIME-VARYING HEDGE RATIOS AND HEDGING EFFICIENCY IN THE BIFFEX MARKET</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/667719</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper estimates time-varying and constant hedge ratios, and investigates their performance in reducing freight rate risk in routes 1 and 1A of the Baltic Freight Index. Time-varying hedge ratios are generated by a bivariate error correction model with a GARCH error structure. An augmented GARCH (GARCH-X) model is also introduced, where the error correction term enters in the specification of the conditional covariance matrix. This specification links the concept of disequilibrium with that of uncertainty. In- and out-of-sample tests reveal that the GARCH-X specification provides greater risk reduction than a simple GARCH and a constant hedge ratio. However it fails to eliminate the riskiness of the spot position to the extent evidenced in other markets in the literature. This is thought to be the result of the heterogeneous composition of the underlying index. It seems that restructuring the composition of the Baltic Freight Index to reflect homogeneous shipping routes may increase the hedging effectiveness of the futures contract. This indicates that the imminent introduction of the Baltic Panamax Index as the underlying asset of the Baltic International Financial Futures Exchange contract is likely to have beneficial market effects.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Sep 2000 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/667719</guid>
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