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    <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
    <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs>
    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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      <title>The causal impact of a business cycle shock on road crashes and its determinants – A synthetic control group analysis</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2423348</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Research suggests that recessions correlate with reductions in crash counts. However, knowledge is still scarce regarding the causality of this association, and the mechanisms through which economic shocks affect crash numbers are not well understood. The authors address these research gaps by applying an econometric methodology that has so far not been used for these research questions. The authors use a quasi-natural experimental approach as the identification strategy. By exploiting the spatial heterogeneity of a shock, the authors define affected and less affected regions as treatment and control units. A synthetic control approach is applied to identify the causal impact of a shock on crash counts and explore the mechanisms contributing to this effect. As a case study, the authors use the 2008/09 financial crisis in Germany and exploit its high spatial variation. The authors find that the crisis caused a significant crash rate reduction of 8% in the treated region. Only 1/4 of this reduction can be attributed to the decline in exposure. The remaining 3/4 are associated with the crisis-induced decrease in crash risk. Decomposing this effect shows that the crash rates in rural areas, of newly registered vehicles, of young adults, related to alcohol and speeding decline more than the overall crash rate. In contrast, crash rates of severe crashes, of heavy-goods vehicles, at night and on weekends are not the driving factors of the decrease in crash rates. Several robustness tests validate the results. Crash counts declined significantly due to the economic crisis. However, the magnitude of the influence is highly dependent on the crash characteristics. Understanding the trajectory of crash counts is crucial for implementing traffic safety measures and working towards vision zero. The study shows that macroeconomic parameters are important potential confounding factors that should be considered in accident analysis.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:55:36 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2423348</guid>
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      <title>A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2270186</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. The authors use the production index of the water transport industry as the reference variable and compute the coincident indicator based on the common component of eight economic indicators. The analysis shows that the Korean shipping industry went through four business cycles during the sample period from 2007M1 to 2021M5. The leading indicator provides early signals of turning points in business cycles with a high correlation. The results suggest that the business cycle indicators present in this study may be useful diagnostic tools for understanding the timely and frequent economic state of the Korean shipping industry and its likely development in the near future.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Oct 2023 08:52:52 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2270186</guid>
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      <title>The impacts of demand and supply shocks in the dry bulk shipping market</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2061224</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The freight rate is a representative variable in the shipping market and is characterized by a cyclical relationship. Even though downturns in the shipping market, such as the shipping industry recession in the 1980s, the global financial crisis in 2008 and COVID-19 crisis in 2020, recur, few studies have analyzed the dynamic relationship between supply and demand in terms of its effect on freight rates. Thus, this study classifies the factors affecting fluctuations in dry cargo freight rates into demand, supply, and freight rate specific demand factors, which play the most important role in managing risk in the shipping market. Based on the recursive structural vector autoregressive (recursive SVAR) model, the authors analyze the historical contributions of the effects of each factor across different time periods. Two main findings are summarized as follows: first, the authors identify the dynamic relationship between factors affecting BDI in the shipping market, and reveal that the magnitude and direction of factors are different. Second, the authors verify that in an extreme situation in which freight rates exceed the normal range, the market is overheated, and freight rates are therefore determined by the freight rate specific demand of market participants rather than by the actual supply and demand.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 28 Nov 2022 09:16:48 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2061224</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>A perfect storm or an imperfect supply chain? The U.S. supply chain crisis</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1930193</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The current supply chain crisis is in part caused by economic stimulus packages, changes in household expenditure, and growth in e-commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic 85% of United States households received stimulus payments, much of which were used to buy goods through e-commerce. In addition, official advice to remain at home, avoid travel, and refrain from gathering in restaurants, gyms, and theaters, led consumers to shift their spending to home improvements and electronics. In the U.S. McKinsey reports that 2020 e-commerce sales increased to just over 32% as a percent of retail sales, from 15% a year earlier. This was not only a U.S. phenomenon; UNCTAD reports that in 2020 worldwide e-commerce as a percent of total retail sales increased from 16% in 2019 to 19% in 2020. The current disruptions in the form of blockages, port congestion, shortages of goods, equipment and labor and particularly global inflation and rapidly rising freight rates are a textbook case of Keynesian excess demand during a decline in supply that lasted more than a year. The decline was seen in factory closures and labor shortages due to quarantines, lockdowns, and home isolation. Supply chains will recover, but adjustments take time and often overreach. The up-and-down nature of the business cycle is all too well known, particularly in international shipping.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 27 Jun 2022 17:16:32 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1930193</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A study of tour formation: Pre-, during, and post-recession analysis</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1878227</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study examines changes in activity-travel patterns of employed people during a recession by using a tour-based representation of the activity-based approach. The term tour is defined as a sequence of trips and activities that begins and ends at home and contains at least one non-home activity. Tours are classified based on the presence of work and/or non-work activities. The authors are interested in investigating how a recession can affect an individual’s tour choices. The authors developed a rigorous methodological framework by using multi-group structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze changes in tour choice. In particular, the authors developed a causal structure conceptualizing the interrelationships among socio-demographic and economic characteristics, activity-travel participation, and the choice of various work and non-work tours. Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), the study found that activity-travel relationships and their role in tour choice differed in the recession year (2009) compared to pre- and post-recession years (2009 and 2012, respectively). By analyzing temporal changes in causal structure, the authors identified four sub-trend groups defined by: (1) norms that did not change in pre-, during, and post-recession years, (2) norms that changed during the recession but returned to the old norm, (3) norms that changed during the recession and were maintained as new norm, and finally (4) 2006 norms that did not change during the 2009 recession but changed after the recession. Via analysis of multiple group SEM, the authors identified instances of each of these cases and provided potential rationales in the context of how a recession can influence norms and thus can affect activity-travel behavior.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Dec 2021 15:14:30 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1878227</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Assessing the effect of urban socioeconomic factors and the financial crisis of 2008 on domestic air cargo traffic in Florida</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1686423</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the social and economic attributes of metropolitan areas and their corresponding domestic cargo traffic. We considered a period of 14 years (2003–2016) and studied the impact of population demographics, employment, and regional industries on domestic cargo traffic of a sampled set of metropolitan areas in Florida. We considered all-cargo carriers and mixed passenger–cargo carriers. Our results provide empirical insights into factors determining the air cargo traffic in Florida. Both population and age demographics of a region is shown to be influential on cargo traffic. Manufacturing industries are shown to prefer all-cargo carriers to mixed passenger–cargo carriers and their concentration in a metro area results in an increase of cargo traffic. In contrast, service industries generate low demand for air cargo. Our results show that larger airports tend to attract cargo traffic away from smaller airports in their close proximity. We also provide insights into the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on domestic cargo traffic in the region. We study the recovery trend and the impact of the high fuel jet prices on slowing down this trend.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 21 Feb 2020 17:25:46 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1686423</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Value chain perspective on the use of trade credit during the 2006–2015 business cycle – evidence from Eurozone SMEs</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1583581</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In order to understand whether advanced chain spanning coordination is needed within the framework of supply chain finance, the authors address the question on how a business cycle affects the use of trade credit in different tiers of the value chain in SMEs. In order to address this research question, they utilise the panel regression analysis on a dataset comprising of a longitudinal sample of SME companies in the Eurozone over a period of 10 years from 2006 until 2015. The authors conclude that trade credit is counter-cyclical in nature, the business cycle has affected the value chain tiers with differing severity with manufacturing end of the value chain being the most affected, and there may exist a propagating liquidity shock in the value chain. Therefore, the authors suggest that supply chain spanning coordination of financing and trade credit is an essential area in advanced supply chain finance.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 18 Apr 2019 11:03:21 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1583581</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Airline Profit Cycle: A System Analysis of Airline Industry Dynamics</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1511819</link>
      <description><![CDATA[For decades, the air transport industry business cycle has been alternating between profits and losses. The magnitude of this cycle has been increasing over time, which may indicate expanding problems and a lack of lessons learned from the past. This book presents a system analysis of the profit cycle to help understand its causes and effects, and it offers potential solutions to produce higher and more stable profits. Specific topics covered include: persistence of the airline profit cycle; potential causes of the profit cycle; a System Dynamics model of profit development; profitability dynamics in model experiments; and conclusions and recommendations. The book will be useful for students, researchers, and practitioners in the airline industry.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2018 14:42:04 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1511819</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Old habits dying : airlines cannot recognize any sign of the next cyclical downturn</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1494039</link>
      <description><![CDATA[]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2018 12:01:41 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1494039</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>An Analysis of Entry and Exit Decisions in Shipping Markets Under Uncertainty</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1484910</link>
      <description><![CDATA[For single shipowners, an important question to ask is when the optimal moment of buying or selling a ship has arrived. This decision of buying or selling a ship can be seen as entering or leaving the shipping market. The prices and revenues in this market were proven to follow a cyclical evolution. A real options model involving a discrete-time Markov process is applied in this article to analyse the described decisions in the cyclical environment of container shipowners who charter out their ships under time charter agreements. Parameters are estimated using real data. The outcomes show robust and realistic results. The methodology and the insights from the analysis can be used by shippers to make funded entry and exit decisions. Finally, some advice for future research is given.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Dec 2017 10:24:25 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1484910</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Exploring the Cyclical Stance of the Shipping Market; Introducing the Shipping Climate Tracer</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1445602</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This article, from a special issue on the role of maritime clusters and innovation in shaping future global trade, describes the use of the Shipping Climate Tracer for business cycle analysis.  The authors describe the methodology and construction of the Tracer, which is based on confidence indicators data from business surveys.  The resulting analysis is used to visualize the cyclical nature of the shipping industry. The Shipping Climate Tracer plots the levels of smoothed confidence indicators against their month-on-month changes, resulting in circular, counter-clockwise movements through the four quadrants of the graph. The authors contend that the Shipping Climate Tracer is a useful and efficient tool for the description and analysis of the shipping cycle.  The Shipping Climate Tracer shows a very good correlation with the actual metadata regarding the turning points of the four stages of the shipping cycle. The Tracer can be used by maritime agencies or organizations at regional, national, and international levels, as well as by bank credit divisions, to assist in decisions regarding market freight rates and cash flow.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2017 15:08:25 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1445602</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Road accidents and business cycles in Spain</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1424773</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, the authors conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 Oct 2016 10:04:01 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1424773</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Economics of Concentration in Shipping: Consequences for the VLCC Tanker Sector</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1413067</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This article focuses on the issue of market concentration in the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) tanker sector and its significance for freight rates during 1993(1)-2010(12). It explores the nature of changes in freight rate volatility along business cycles and finds that freight rate volatility generally increases during both upswings and downswings of the market, but becomes evidently more intense during market upswings. Industrial concentration in the VLCC sector is measured via application of concentration measures that are well founded in the literature. The empirical results obtained reveal a significant increase in market concentration post-1993. Subsequently, the effect of changes in market structure upon the formation and volatility of VLCC spot and time charter freight rates is investigated. We substantiate a positive relationship between spot freight rates and market concentration over the period examined, concluding that expectations regarding the future course of concentration are critical for forecasting the direction of freight rates in the future.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 28 Jul 2016 10:03:01 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1413067</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Transport policy and governance in turbulent times: Evidence from Ireland</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1412168</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper investigates transport policy in the Republic of Ireland before, during and after the ‘Celtic Tiger’ era (1995–2007), to capture how the prevailing governance system responded to rapid economic, political, and social changes. The authors argue that a detailed record of changes in Irish transport policy and governance during these turbulent times can offer lessons that are relevant to sustainable transport efforts internationally. Focusing on the development, introduction and subsequent implementation of two transport policy milestones, this paper considers political and institutional conditions that paved the way for both a high-cost approach to transport infrastructure development prior to the financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent shift in policy discourse towards ‘smarter’ more sustainable travel following the rapid deterioration of public finances in the late 2000s. It then asks what changes (if any) are needed to current political-institutional structures to ensure future implementation of these declaratory commitments to sustainable transport. The concluding section explores whether it would be possible, or indeed desirable, to put current transport policy responses to the economic crisis on a more permanent footing, with a view to advancing the sustainable transport agenda, and uncovers opportunities to promote and implement sustainability initiatives in times of financial restraints.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 09:51:41 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1412168</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Pseudo-Hypercycle and Its Effects: A Study on an LTL Trucking Company in China</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1362289</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The concept of the “pseudo-hypercycle” introduced to model interaction networks formed from production units. Although pseudo-hypercycles represent apparently similar phenomena to that of hypercycles, pseudo-hypercycles have different quantitative characterization modes in their inherent mechanism. Less-than-truckload (LTL) trucking companies usually operate networks and have affiliates in different regions. In this context, both a qualitative analysis based on Industrial Economics and Transportation Economics and an empirical study based on cointegration analysis are employed to find pseudo-hypercycles based on the interaction and cooperation among affiliates in a LTL trucking company in China. Pseudo-hypercycles in the LTL trucking company are proven to show help in increasing freight volume and to maintain a steady situation for the company’s affiliates.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2015 13:57:24 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1362289</guid>
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