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    <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
    <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs>
    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
    <image>
      <title>Transport Research International Documentation (TRID)</title>
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      <link>https://trid.trb.org/</link>
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    <item>
      <title>A tailored approach to bankruptcy risk in the airline industry: a two dimensional financial distress indicator</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2672552</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The airline industry has long faced high financial distress and frequent bankruptcies, with traditional bankruptcy prediction models struggling to provide timely and industry-specific early warning signals. Existing financial models, such as the Altman Z-score and its adaptations, have been widely applied but often fail to capture the unique financial structures and risk factors of airlines. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional financial distress indicator explicitly designed for the airline industry. The proposed model hypothesis-tests and visualizes an airline’s bankruptcy risk using two key financial parameters: the operational ratio (OPR)—calculated as operating expenses divided by operating revenues—and the equity-to-debt ratio (E/D). These metrics are plotted on a two-dimensional graph to illustrate the financial position of airlines over time. To quantify bankruptcy risk, the model integrates the Pilarski bankruptcy score, a logit-based probability model tailored to the airline sector. A dataset of 52 airlines covering the period 2015–2019 is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. The results highlight distinct financial patterns: airlines with lower operational ratios and higher equity-to-debt ratios tend to exhibit greater financial stability, whereas highly leveraged carriers with poor operational efficiency show a significantly higher probability of bankruptcy. The model successfully differentiates between financially robust and distressed airlines, demonstrating a clear visual representation of financial trajectories. Comparative analysis across U.S. and European airlines reveals key industry trends. U.S. low-cost carriers (LCCs) tend to maintain stronger financial positions, while European carriers display a wider variation in financial health. Airlines such as Delta and British Airways emerge as strong performers, whereas carriers with excessive leverage, such as American Airlines, show elevated financial risk for the period studied. Unlike traditional bankruptcy models, which often provide only static, one-year-ahead reliable predictions, this approach allows for dynamic time-path analysis. By tracking an airline’s financial evolution, managers can take proactive corrective actions to improve financial performance. This model also facilitates competitive benchmarking, enabling industry stakeholders to assess an airline’s position relative to its peers. Overall, the proposed two-dimensional financial distress indicator provides a practical, visual, and industry-specific tool for assessing airline financial health. It enhances traditional bankruptcy models by incorporating a clear temporal dimension, allowing for improved decision-making and risk management by the airlines and bankers.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2026 09:18:19 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2672552</guid>
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    <item>
      <title>Airline restructuring: A dynamic programming approach combined with genetic algorithm for network and fleet downsizing</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2640938</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In the decade following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, more than 1,400 airlines, commercial air services, and charter companies went bankrupt. During the COVID-19 pandemic, hundreds of airlines applied to declare bankruptcy. Despite these challenges, many airlines have demonstrated the ability to recover through successful restructuring following bankruptcy protection. A famous example is Japan Airlines (JAL), which faced bankruptcy in 2010 but successfully returned to the market through the Tokyo Stock Exchange in just two years and eight months. At the core of JAL’s restructuring was network and fleet downsizing. This study formulates a dynamic programming (DP) model to assist the restructuring airline’s action on each route and aircraft, considering the airline's ability to repay debt. A genetic algorithm (GA) is devised to solve the proposed problem. The numerical experiment results suggest that airlines should withdraw routes with huge losses, deficient load factors, low profits, and few connections. Furthermore, the restructuring airline must stop providing flights on routes that do not have direct links to its base country, despite the high connectivity of these routes. For routes with high connectivity and potential profitability, the results suggest that the airline terminates operations in the early stage of restructuring but resumes them later. Regarding fleet downsizing, the airline is required to remove old aircraft types, retain those with moderate debt and assets, and introduce new aircraft types into the fleet. The results closely mirror the patterns observed in JAL’s restructuring, suggesting the feasibility and validity of the proposed approach.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2025 09:37:10 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2640938</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The financial resilience of US airports</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2604243</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The US airport industry is one of the most financially resilient sectors in the world. No government-owned airport in the US has ever filed for bankruptcy or defaulted on its bonds. In fact, US airports have remained financially resilient despite airline bankruptcies, airline dehubbing at airports, the 9/11 terrorist attack that shut down the US airport industry for several days, recessions including the Great Recession of 2008–9; and most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic that reduced passenger traffic by over 90 per cent at US airports for an extended period. This paper explores the five primary reasons for this financial resilience: the US airport legal structure, the essentiality of airports (and airlines), airline actions during bankruptcy, airports’ financial strength and airport management. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2025 17:03:50 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2604243</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Productivity impact of government-led bailout of Japan Airlines</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2548287</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Over ten years have passed since Japan Airlines (JAL) filed for bankruptcy. This paper treats how the Japanese government undertook the bailout in January 2010 and subsequent measures to facilitate competition between JAL and the other national air carrier, All Nippon Airways (ANA). After describing the bailout process and post-bailout measures regarding slot allocation at Haneda Airport, the paper assesses the impact of these government interventions on airline productivity. Although JAL's total factor productivity (TFP) plunged with bankruptcy, they managed to turn the business around and TFP rapidly recovered thereafter to exceed that of ANA. Regression Discontinuity (RD) design analysis shows evidence of positive impact of these government interventions on TFP growth rate of the two airlines. As of 2016, JAL and ANA's TFP figures are more-or-less equal. In Japan, a new era of competition of the two legacy air carriers has emerged.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2025 10:10:54 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2548287</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Day After Airline Bankruptcy</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2314036</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Fair consumer protection regulations can make the market work for both business and the consumer, and air transportation is no exception.  To balance the different interests between airlines and passengers, several different regulatory regimes have been adopted.  For instance, the European Union has enacted Council Regulation 261/2004, which provides passenger protections for overbooking, denied boarding, and delay; the United States has required airlines to compensate passengers for certain tarmac delays under 14 C.F.R. Parts 244 and 259, and the Canadian Transportation Agency enacted the Air Passenger Protection Regulations, which established a more comprehensive consumer protection regime for customers.  However, if an airline files for bankruptcy, it is less likely that stranded passengers and purchasers of unused tickets will be fairly compensated and refunded because their claims are not entitled to priority over secured creditors.  Even though passengers and ticket holders can purchase insurance for the potential loss in advance – and several approaches have been adopted to protect them – the legal vacuum will still pose heavy financial pressure on these consumers in the event of an airline bankruptcy.  National authorities should ensure that the traveling public benefits from adequate financial protection that is both affordable and simple for the consumer to understand.  Accordingly, this paper proposes a novel set-aside mechanism that would be cost-effective and able to provide the most immediate protection for passengers, airlines, and governments.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Dec 2023 10:28:32 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2314036</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Effects of Bankruptcy on Airline Yield and Frequency: The case of the duopolistic domestic market in Japan</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/2219577</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Using data on the Japanese domestic market from 2008 to 2013, this paper investigates the market dynamics triggered by the 2010 bankruptcy protection of Japan Airlines (JAL). The authors' analysis suggests that JAL downsized its overall operations, leaving relatively thin routes even though there were fewer competitors and slightly higher yields in those thin markets. The airline nevertheless increased the yields and flight frequencies in the consolidated network more significantly than its rival airlines did. Following JAL's bankruptcy, Japanese carriers focused more on improving yield and frequency in general, and the competition between the duopoly airlines (JAL and All Nippon Airways (ANA)) became less effective. In comparison, low-cost carriers (LCCs) and smaller airlines continued to exert significant competitive pressure on the market despite their small market shares. These patterns are different from those observed in the US, where a huge domestic market is served by a large number of competitive airlines. Overall, their analysis suggests that the Japanese government's support of JAL's restructuring efforts was appropriate. However, there is evidence that the JAL-ANA duopoly became less effective in maintaining market competition. The Japanese government should more actively explore ways to provide a level playground to LCCs and smaller airlines so that enhanced competition can promote airline efficiency and services in the long term.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 28 Aug 2023 09:19:08 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/2219577</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A Fuzzy-Bayesian Approach on the Bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1938465</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The vital role of container liner shipping in international trade suggests that understanding why container liner firms go bankrupt is crucial to the sustainability of the maritime supply chain to improve resilience. Considering the insolvency of Hanjin Shipping as a case study, this paper investigates the probabilistic relationships among the bankruptcy causal factors that are disclosed qualitatively and quantitatively, exploiting a fuzzy Bayes network approach. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to increase the accuracy of the findings. Outcomes of the paper reveal that an integrated approach comprising of both endogenous and exogenous causal factors is a more powerful approach to explain the demise of Hanjin Shipping. Compared to exogenous factors, endogenous factors account more for the collapse of the firm. Furthermore, it is found that government support would have been a more influential measure to mitigate the negative effects of the demise compared to the merging and acquisition practice. Competitor liner operators, policymakers, and stakeholders in the maritime supply chain ecosystem can utilize the outcomes of this research to mitigate the bankruptcy risk and improve the maritime supply chain resilience capacity.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2022 16:14:05 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1938465</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Excessive investment failure corporate strategy: A case study of the bankruptcy of the state-owned Indonesia airline Garuda Indonesia</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1949528</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This study aims to share the knowledge and practices behind the false corporate strategy implemented by the state-owned airline Garuda Indonesia due to multiple malpractices. Excessive investment should expand the scale and scope of the business but, otherwise, the strategy has accelerated management's chaos and disruption. The methodologies used in this study were mixed, combining case studies with descriptive and content analysis. The data taken was from 2009 to 2021, during this period, the state air flag carrier Indonesia has made excessive investments to procure 50 new aircraft from Boeing and an additional 10 units of Airbus by funding from the debts. This study found that Garuda went bankrupt because of excessive investment amplified by several mistakes in corporate strategy malpractices. The strategy to procure hundreds of aircraft is fine and precise, but some key persons took personal benefits from the transactions. In 2009, Garuda started extraordinary contracts, and by 2021 it was going into severe trouble. This study provides guidance and lesson learned for corporations that would have been considering doing business expansion due to wishing to increase the scale and scope of the corporation. This study enriches the literature on corporate strategies for future research.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2022 10:08:10 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1949528</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Quantifying the net impact and redistribution effects of airlines’ exits on passenger traffic</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1929839</link>
      <description><![CDATA[This paper studies the impact of airlines’ exits on passenger traffic. In this regard, univariate and multivariate structural time series have been applied. They have proved useful to quantify the net impact on passenger traffic and redistribution effects among incumbent airlines. As an application, a natural experiment is studied, in which two relevant airlines filed for bankruptcy in different periods. In the first, policymakers employed a laissez faire strategy, whereas in the second, they applied an incentive scheme programme. The programme was based on the support of destination promotion, tax and tariff discounts. Overall, the paper shows that under laissez faire, the incumbent airlines did not take over the passenger traffic left by the airline that exited the route. However, in the second case, following approval of the incentive scheme, the loss of passengers was mitigated by the incumbent airlines.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2022 15:23:37 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1929839</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Model for Determining the Probability of Airline Bankruptcy</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1910269</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The present study is aimed at developing a preliminary model for assessing the financial condition and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of the airline. The goal is using effective forecasting methods to develop a model for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of airlines in the conditions of non-stationary development of the Russian economy. In this paper the financial resources of mainly large Russian airlines and their patterns are considered, using economic and mathematical forecasting methods and general methods of scientific cognition in various aspects. The authors substantiate the existence of patterns among the financial indicators of Russian airlines of bankrupt and non-bankrupt, and also propose schemes for constructing an economic and mathematical model and identify median values of financial indicators. This model for preliminary detection of airline bankruptcies can be used taking into account a limited set of financial indicators due to the ease of implementation and the availability of most data in the public domain. The authors of the work investigated the methods of predicting bankruptcy of enterprises, with an emphasis on airlines, and made a comparative analysis of financial indicators according to the financial statements of Russian airlines.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 18 Mar 2022 12:17:11 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1910269</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Application of fuzzy Bayesian approach on bankruptcy causes for container liner industry</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1899942</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The crucial role of the container liner industry in international trade suggests that understanding why container liner firms go bankrupt is vital to the stability, sustainability, and health of container liner transportation. For prevention of the bankruptcies, it is important to reveal the leading causes. Taken the container liner industry into consideration, this paper constructs a novel model of the causal mechanism of bankruptcy from a holistic perspective. Probabilistic relationships between failure causes are revealed qualitatively and quantitatively utilizing a Fuzzy Bayesian Network approach. Following that scenario, sensitivity and validation analyses are carried out to increase the accuracy of findings. Results of the research indicate that when external and internal causes exist together then the probability of bankruptcy occurrence appears with the highest percentage. This supports the research body suggesting that an integrated approach is a more powerful approach in explaining the causes of the bankruptcy than internal or external causes do separately. It is also observed that compared to the external factors, internal causes are found to more contribute to a bankruptcy of a container liner firm. Policy makers and stakeholders in the container liner transportation can utilize the results of this paper in the prevention of firm bankruptcy.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 24 Jan 2022 10:49:13 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1899942</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Airline Bankruptcy, Brazilian Style</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1900316</link>
      <description><![CDATA[While Brazilian domestic air transport is a fast-growing and potentially very lucrative market, it has not reached its full potential.  This article identifies the primary reasons for this failure as a lack of competition, market consolidation, and a regulatory burden that has been maintained for decades.  An enormous consequence has been a large number of airline failures; notable among them is Avianca Brazil.  The 2018 bankruptcy of Avianca, once one of the country’s highest-growth airlines, calls into question the sustainability of the Brazilian airline market.  Focusing on Brazil’s airline landscape, and Avianca in particular, the article discusses the nature of airline bankruptcy in Brazil and the many questions raised regarding the deficiencies of the Brazilian system and the Brazilian judiciary’s understanding of the aviation market.  Of concern is a perceived split among judges regarding passenger rights versus airline economics.  Other particularly vexing problems are the legal barriers preventing troubled airlines from selling their slots and the Brazilian government’s failure to step in to avoid market concentration as, for instance, the Italian government did with Alitalia.  Finally, the article raises questions regarding the consequences of the more recent LATAM bankruptcy in Brazil and its potentially enormous impact on air fares.  The author posits whether, in this case, the Brazilian government will intervene to save LATAM, or if LATAM will go down a similar path as Avianca.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 28 Dec 2021 09:33:31 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1900316</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Determinants of financial distress in the European air transport industry: The moderating effect of being a flag-carrier</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1898187</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Due to the COVID-induced global collapse in demand for air travel, the year 2020 was a catastrophic one for the aviation industry. A dramatic drop in operating revenues along with continuing fixed expenses drained the cash reserves of airlines, with consequent risks of financial distress and, potentially, even of bankruptcy. Flag-carriers are a special group in the airline business—they are considered to have privileges in terms of the support given by governments while, on the other hand, are often viewed as having low efficiency and performance. This study aims to estimate for European airlines the interaction effect of being a flag-carrier (flagship) with the relationship between leverage, liquidity, profitability, and the degree of financial distress. Findings obtained from analysing 99 European airlines over a period of ten years, indicate that the negative influence of leverage on financial stability is higher in the case of flag carriers (flagship). The impact of liquidity and profitability on financial health is more positive for flagship than for non-flagship carriers. These findings are not limited to contributing to the existing literature, but also have significant practical implications for executives, managers, and policy makers in the European air transport sector.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 21 Dec 2021 09:52:13 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1898187</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Latest challenges to ports in public-private partnership: Case of Dandong Port (China)’s bankrupt</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1860644</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The investment environment in port infrastructure appeared fluctuating in recent years, which throw more uncertainties and challenges in port public-private partnership (PPP). Among ports in PPP, Dandong port in China is the most miserable and bankrupted in 2017. In this study, interpretative structural model (ISM) is employed to investigate why the bankruptcy of Dandong port happened as it was, and explicates the causes from different perspectives. The ISM-based model interprets the interrelationships among those causes and their benchmarking position in the structural hierarchy from high- to low-level. It is shown that the factors, i.e. the economy slowing down in the hinterland, ambitious port plan of local government and unprofessional top management are the most fundamental causes to its failure. Findings provide insight learning from the failed PPP case for industry stakeholders and offer managerial implication into the port policy.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:18:25 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1860644</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>COVID-19 and bailout policy: The case of Virgin Australia</title>
      <link>https://trid.trb.org/View/1881837</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The impact of COVID-19 on air transport is unprecedented and some well-known airline brands may disappear as a result. Governments around the world have responded swiftly to cushion the financial impact by offering direct wage subsidies, tax relief, loans, etc. This paper explores the government’s appropriate responses to failing airlines’ bailout request by examining the case of Virgin Australia. Following the bailout policy principles established in the literature, the authors suggest that bankruptcy protection should be considered as the first solution to a failing carrier. A bailout decision should be guided by a set of principles and procedures, which should not be taken lightly. Their analysis also shows that the government cannot take a hands-off approach in the absence of private lenders and investors, as the costs to consumers and regional residents would be huge if the carrier could not get through the COVID-19 pandemic. A minimum level of assistance with conditions might be needed to restore market competition.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 25 Oct 2021 08:47:36 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://trid.trb.org/View/1881837</guid>
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