Rising Gas Price and Transit Ridership: Case Study of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

In July 2008, gas prices peaked at unprecedented levels in both nominal and real dollars. Americans also took more transit trips in 2008 than in any year since 1956. Past research has demonstrated a correlation between increases in gas price and increases in transit ridership. Using the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area as a case study, this research confirms and provides new insight into this relationship. Multivariate linear regressions were developed both to demonstrate and to measure the correlation while accounting for seasonal differences and to provide insight into what future gas price scenarios could mean for a transit system in a city like Philadelphia. One set of models was developed for the Regional Rail system and another was developed for the City Transit system. Both models demonstrated correlations of statistical significance. Comparison of the models showed that the price of gas had both a more significant correlation with and a higher impact on Regional Rail ridership than on City Transit ridership. The models were also used to explore the cross elasticity for transit demand. The results suggest various cross elasticities of between 0.15 and 0.23 for City Transit services and between 0.27 and 0.38 for Regional Rail services. The problems with attempting to isolate a value for cross elasticity are discussed. This analysis also explores the possibilities of a nonlinear relationship that explains past trends and discusses the difficulties in using these models to predict future transit demand.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3141/2139-21
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Rising+Gas+Price+and+Transit+Ridership%3a+Case+Study+of+Philadelphia%2c+Pennsylvania&author=D.+Maley&author=R.+Weinberger&publication_year=2009
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/Energy_and_Global_Climate_Change_2009_163018.aspx
• Authors:
  • Maley, Donald W
  • Weinberger, Rachel
• Publication Date: 2009

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 183-188
• Monograph Title: Energy and Global Climate Change 2009
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Issue Number: 2139
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Elasticity (Economics); Gasoline; Mathematical models; Multivariate analysis; Prices; Public transit; Regional railroads; Regression analysis; Ridership; Travel behavior; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: Philadelphia (Pennsylvania)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01129449
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780309142694
• Report/Paper Numbers: 09-0534
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: May 27 2009 10:17AM