Staged Survival Models for Overlay Performance Prediction
Asphalt concrete (AC) resurfacing is used by highway agencies to maintain and improve existing pavement conditions. With a large portion of their budgets being spent on road maintenance and rehabilitation, the agencies are interested in identifying the optimal timing of resurfacing and its life expectations. Using Kentucky's pavement management data, the research as presented by this paper investigated the procedures and methods of establishing thresholds and developing performance prediction models for AC overlays. Both transition probability matrix and data plots were used to investigate the performance trend of overlays. Based on the trend, two stage survival models were proposed to predict the resurfacing cycles. The first stage model can be used to predict the useful life of an overlay before a new resurfacing is required, while the second one can be used to predict the time window during which the new overlay must be applied to avoid accelerated pavement deterioration.
- Record URL:
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/44544515
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Supplemental Notes:
- Abstract reprinted with permission from Taylor and Francis
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Authors:
- Wang, Yuhong
- Allen, D
- Publication Date: 2008
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Print
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 33-44
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Serial:
- International Journal of Pavement Engineering
- Volume: 9
- Issue Number: 1
- Publisher: Taylor & Francis
- ISSN: 1029-8436
- Serial URL: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/10298436.html
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Asphalt concrete pavements; Highways; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Pavement distress; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Rehabilitation; Resurfacing; Service life; Transportation departments
- Identifier Terms: Transition Probability Matrix (TPM)
- Geographic Terms: Kentucky
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01090732
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Mar 27 2008 10:27AM