FORECASTING THE BALTIC FREIGHT INDEX: BOX-JENKINS REVISITED

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins approach is adopted to produce forecasting models for the Baltic Freight Index (BFI). Accurate short-term forecasts facilitates the development of a model for use as a tool for either speculation or aggressive hedging strategies in the futures market, the Baltic International Freight Futures Exchange (BIFFEX). Changes in the structure of the BFI enabled the re-appraisal of an earlier forecasting model, and an assessment of whether the fundamental characteristics of the BFI had changed. An AR(2) model was derived that performed well in the short term (two to ten days).

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0080435904
• Corporate Authors:

  Elsevier

  The Boulevard, Langford Lane
  Kidlington, Oxford  United Kingdom  OX5 1GB
• Authors:
  • Cullinane, KPB
  • Mason, K J
  • Cape, M
• Conference:
  • World Transport Research: Selected Proceedings of the 8th World Conference on Transport Research
  • Location: Antwerp, Belgium
  • Date: 1998-7-12 to 1998-7-17
• Publication Date: 1999

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 73-86

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Data collection; Forecasting; Freight billing; Freight service; Profitability; Ships; Trade routes
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00783924
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0080435904
• Report/Paper Numbers: Volume 1
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Feb 4 2000 12:00AM