METHODOLOGY FOR SHORT-RANGE TRAVEL DEMAND PREDICTIONS. ANALYSIS OF CARPOOLING INCENTIVES

This paper presents a methodology for predicting changes in travel patterns for short-range transport options, including carpooling incentive policies. The methodology is based on the application of disaggregate travel demand models. These models are based on the multinomial logit probabilistic choice model. The data used to estimate the coefficients of these models are taken from home interview surveys and represent a cross-section of households in Washington, DC, USA. The dependent variables of the models are the reported travel choices made; the independent variables are socio-economic characteristics measures of travel times and costs, and survey estimate of employment and land use characteristics in the urban area. The models represent the direct and indirect effects on travel behaviour: (1) shifts in mode of work trips from driving alone and transit to carpooling; (2) alternative use of cars left at home for non-work travel; and (3) changes in car ownership level. Results results are presented of predicting from a case study application of this methodology to various carpooling related policies. The paper concludes with a summary of major findings and recommendations for further improvements in carpooling and short-range demand prediction methods. /TRRL/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/856156
• Corporate Authors:

  London School of Economics and Political Science

  Houghton Street, Aldwych
  London WC2A 2AE,   England 
• Authors:
  • Ben-Ariva, M
  • Atherton, T J
• Publication Date: 1977-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 224-261
• Serial:
  • Journal of Transport Economics and Policy
  • Volume: 11
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: University of Bath
  • ISSN: 0022-5258
  • Serial URL: http://www.jtep.com

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Benefit cost analysis; Car pooling (Railroads); Carpools; Costs; Decision making; Demand; Forecasting; Incentives; Jobs; Materials adaptation and use; Mathematical models; Methodology; Modal split; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Probability; Probability theory; Public transit; Questionnaires; Sintering; Socioeconomic factors; Surveys; Transportation modes; Travel; Travel demand; Travel time; Trip length; Urban areas; Work trips
• Uncontrolled Terms: Selection
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Old TRIS Terms: Sinter /material/
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 224: Cost; 2248: Decision process; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 9147: Interview; 697: Journey time; 621: Journey to work; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 2271: Occupation; 6534: Probability; 744: Public transport; 9072: Selection; 1034: Transnational network; 1145: Transport mode; 8122: USA; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Construction; Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00170351
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Report/Paper Numbers: Analytic
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 12 1981 12:00AM