THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF PREDICTIVE ACCIDENT MODELS

The aim of this paper is to describe some of the issues arising in the development and application of predictive accident models. Section 2 describes the series of major empirical junction accident studies carried out in the UK by the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL). Section 3 considers the most appropriate form of statistical model to use in order to establish robust relationships between accidents, flows and design. Section 4 then gives some illustrations of such models. Section 5 deals with the estimation of the uncertainty which should be attached to the predictions, while section 6 describes the application of the models at both an individual site level and in a network-wide context. Lastly, section 7 discusses some of the remaining contentious issues surrounding the interpretation and use of predictive models and work which is planned to investigate some of these issues further.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03476049
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
  London W6OL9,   England 
• Authors:
  • Maher, M
• Conference:
  • Proceedings of the Conference: Road Safety in Europe and Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP)
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic
  • Date: 1995-9-20 to 1995-9-22
• Publication Date: 1996-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 211-225
• Serial:
  • VTI Conferens
  • Publisher: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
  • ISSN: 0347-6049

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash data; Crashes; Forecasting; Statistics; Traffic crashes; Traffic models
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00723250
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: No. 4A, Part 2
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 9 1996 12:00AM