DOES KNOWLEDGE OF SAFETY EFFECT HELP TO PREDICT HOW EFFECTIVE A MEASURE WILL BE?
Studies evaluating the effects of traffic safety measures are often done for the purpose of predicting the effects of future applications of the measures. The predictive value of evaluation studies is unknown. Some general arguments for and against attributing a general predictive value to the results of evaluation studies are discussed. The predictive performance of studies evaluating the safety effects of road lighting and traffic separation is tested. Predictive performance is found to depend mainly on whether the results of evaluation studies are stable over time or exhibit a trends. It is shown that increasing the amount of evidence predictions are based on, does not necessarily make the predictions more accurate. More research does not always improve predictive performance.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03476049
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Corporate Authors:
PTRC Education and Research Services Limited
Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
London W6OL9, England -
Authors:
- Elvik, R
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Conference:
- Proceedings of the Conference: Road Safety in Europe and Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP)
- Location: Prague, Czech Republic
- Date: 1995-9-20 to 1995-9-22
- Publication Date: 1996-3
Language
- English
Media Info
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: p. 173-210
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Serial:
- VTI Conferens
- Publisher: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
- ISSN: 0347-6049
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Evaluation and assessment; Mathematical prediction; Safety; Street lighting; Traffic safety
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00723249
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: No. 4A, Part 2
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jul 9 1996 12:00AM