ANALYSIS OF A FARE INCREASE BY USE OF TIME-SERIES AND BEFORE-AND-AFTER DATA

On October 1, 1978, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) increased fares on almost all bus routes in the system. The impact of the fare increase on transit ridership is analyzed. Two complementary techniques are examined: (a) estimation of a ridership model based on time-series JTA operating data and (b) estimation of fare elasticities for market segments based on before-and-after on-board survey data. By using monthly operating data for JTA from January 1976 through June 1979 and multiple regression techniques, the elasticity of demand with respect to basic fare in real terms is estimated. The elasticity with respect to bus miles of service and the cross elasticity with respect to gasoline price are also estimated. The nonlinear, constant-elasticity model is found to best represent changes in travel behavior for the observed data. In addition, long-run elasticities are not significantly different from the one-month short-run elasticities over the time for which data were available after the fare increase (9 months). An on-board survey, administered slightly less than 6.5 months after the fare increase, is used to analyze the impact of the fare increase on market segments. Reliable estimates of market segment elasticities could not be obtained because the assumptions required for application of this method were violated. Sampling designs are required that provide more precise estimates of market segment ridership and disaggregate data by which to examine the impacts of all factors that affect transit use by market segments so that reliable estimates of market segment elasticities can be obtained.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 84-90
  • Monograph Title: Urban public transportation planning issues
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00372422
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309034655
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Apr 29 1983 12:00AM