Risk-Based Estimating Practices: A Case Study of Minnesota Department of Transportation

Accurate project cost estimates set internal and external expectations for project funding, prioritization, and cash flow requirements. Inability of transportation agencies to accurately estimate project costs may lead to delays and lack of confidence in the agency’s ability to realize its commitments. There are a plethora of tools and manuals available for transportation agencies to aid in the estimation process while incorporating risks and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to investigate how risk-based estimating is implemented in Minnesota Department of Transportation's (MnDOT’s) different offices at projects that are approximately at 30% design complete, and provide recommendations on how various efforts could be streamlined to improve the cost estimating process department wide. The methodology of this research included conducting (1) a literature review of DOTs in terms of Risk-Based Estimating (RBE) implementation, (2) interviews with DOT personnel from 5 different offices statewide, and (3) a workshop with DOT personnel to share results and recommendations. Three major recommendations emerged from this study; (1) develop a state wide risk register and use state wide, (2) exchange of knowledge on Monte Carlo simulation use and its benefits, and (3) enhance communication through a yearly estimation state forum. Other than the specific recommendations, the major conclusion that can be drawn is that though there are federal and state guidebooks and technologies available for incorporating risk management process in the estimating process, there is lack of a consistent framework for risk management implementation within the department offices which results in lost learning opportunities for state district offices.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFH10 Standing Committee on Construction Management.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Gad, Ghada M
  • Shane, Jennifer S
  • Strong, Kelly C
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Construction projects; Cost estimating; Literature reviews; Monte Carlo method; Recommendations; Risk management
• Identifier Terms: Minnesota Department of Transportation
• Subject Areas: Construction; Finance; Transportation (General); I10: Economics and Administration; I50: Construction and Supervision of Construction;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01590718
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-4809
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 22 2016 1:15PM