Data as a resource: real-time predictive analytics for bus bunching

This paper outlines the results of an eight week pilot program in Miami that provided a real-time system to predict bus bunching along four routes. Bunching refers to the phenomenon of two buses serving the same route arriving at a stop at the same time. Desired service headways are not maintained in such cases leading to lower levels of service for passengers on account of longer wait times and lower utilization of resources for operators. Predictions of when and where bus bunching is likely to occur in the future equip controllers with tools to regularize headways in an anticipative fashion. The ‘best-effort’ prediction system works in an entirely data-driven fashion and leverages, in part, a historical catalog of bus propagation. Applications in performance management and schedule optimization are also presented.

Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP050 Bus Transit Systems.
Corporate Authors:
Transportation Research Board

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Washington, DC United States 20001
Authors:
- Nair, Rahul
- Bouillet, Eric
- Gkoufas, Yiannis
- Verscheure, Olivier
- Mourad, Magda
- Yashar, Farzin
- Perez, Rosie
- Perez, Joel
- Bryant, Gerald
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
Date: 2015

Language

English

Media Info

Media Type: Digital/other
Features: Figures; References; Tables;
Pagination: 23p
Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

TRT Terms: Bunching; Bus transit operations; Headways; Mathematical prediction; Real time data processing; Schedules and scheduling
Geographic Terms: Miami (Florida)
Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management; Public Transportation; I73: Traffic Control;

Filing Info

Accession Number: 01551156
Record Type: Publication
Report/Paper Numbers: 15-2129
Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Jan 27 2015 11:21AM