Modeling Bicyclists’ Injury Severity Levels in the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada, Using a Generalized Ordered Probit Structure

This paper examines the factors affecting injury severity in bicycle collisions using a generalized ordered probit model. One of the unique features of the modeling approach adopted in this paper is its flexible threshold structure, which incorporates individual variations in the thresholds to account for heterogeneity likely present in the data, but not commonly accommodated in traditional ordered probit models. Additionally, previous research has focused primarily on the factors that affect injury severity for motorists; generally, less attention has been given to understanding factors that affect injury severity levels for cyclists. Furthermore, examination of neighborhood and land use attributes in association with injury severity is surprisingly limited in the existing literature. This study attempts to fill the gap, particularly in understanding how land use and neighborhood characteristics affect injury severity levels for bicyclists. The data covers 2007-2011 bicycle collisions taken from police collision reports from the Province of Nova Scotia, supplemented with Census tabulations, provincial land use information, and point of interest data specific to the individual collision locations. The results reveal that females, impaired cyclists, and persons aged 45-54 involved in bicycle collisions have an increased likelihood of sustaining more severe injuries. Road condition and configuration, bicyclists’ manoeuver, and lighting conditions also affect cyclists’ injury severity levels. Finally, characteristics of the neighborhood in which collisions occur, often ignored in previous collision studies, for instance land use mix, proximity to activity centers, and demographic attributes are found to be significant in explaining injury severity of bicyclists. The results suggest that neighborhood characteristics should be given more scrutiny and be an important consideration when evaluating and planning for cyclist safety.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANF20 Bicycle Transportation. Alternate title: Modeling Bicyclists’ Injury Severity Levels in Province of Nova Scotia, Canada, Using Generalized Ordered Probit Structure
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Habib, Muhammad Ahsanul
  • Forbes, Justin Jamael
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 19p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bicycle crashes; Cyclists; Demographics; Geometric design; Injury severity; Land use; Neighborhoods; Probits; Street lighting; Traffic safety
• Uncontrolled Terms: Bicycle safety; Ordered probit models
• Geographic Terms: Nova Scotia
• Subject Areas: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01516243
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-5303
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 28 2014 12:32PM