Projecting Climate Change Impacts on the Transportation System: A GIS-Based Approach for Network-Level Culvert Infrastructure Management

In recent years, the transportation community has become increasingly concerned that global climate change and changes in extreme weather patterns may adversely impact transportation infrastructure and the quality of life of communities. Adaptation – actions that reduce the vulnerability of human systems – has been proposed widely within the transportation community as a response to climate change, and several risk-based frameworks have emerged. However, the current understanding of future climate is largely based on general circulation models (GCMs), the output of which is poorly suited to drive infrastructure management and design decisions due to coarse spatial resolution and difficulty in projecting extreme events. This research project develops a geographic information systems (GIS)-based method that uses nationally available statistically downscaled climate change data to provide transportation managers with insight into future exposure of infrastructure systems to extreme precipitation events, including flooding potential. The method uses an ensemble modeling approach to project future 24-hour precipitation over a region, and then computes the annual maximum 24-hour precipitation for areas within that region. Precipitation levels for high-frequency (e.g., 10-year) events are then computed using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for each area, and then compared with historical 24-hour precipitation levels for the same return period to provide relative indicators of future exposure to higher return-period events. This method is then applied in a case study to illustrate its relevance as a potential input in network-level risk identification and analysis. The case study examines roadway drainage infrastructure in Washington State. This approach can make climate data more readily available for use in considering adaptation measures in transportation decision-making.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC70(2) Climate Change. Alternate title: Projecting Climate Change Impacts on the Transportation System: GIS-Based Approach for Network-Level Culvert Infrastructure Management
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Wall, Thomas A
  • Rodgers, Michael Owen
  • Amekudzi, Adjo A
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Climate change; Culverts; Decision making; Floods; Forecasting; Geographic information systems; Impacts; Infrastructure; Precipitation (Meteorology); Psychological adaptation
• Geographic Terms: Washington (State)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Hydraulics and Hydrology; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; Transportation (General); I15: Environment; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01515247
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-2813
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 21 2014 3:18PM