Probability Estimation and Implication of Piracy Using a Tangible Method

It is an important and difficult problem to calculate the probability of encountering pirates for a trip. This paper proposes a tangible method to estimate the probability based on the historical data from International Maritime Bureau (IMB) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The tangible method consists of two parts. At first, it is assumed that the probability is equal everywhere in the sea. The average probability of piracy is estimated. Then, an adjusting coefficient is proposed to revise the probability of piracy in each trip. The adjusting coefficient of each trip is related to the average number of piracy in every grid which is defined in Geographic Information System (GIS) and come across by the trip. Finally, a numerical example of a trip from Shanghai to the Republic of Kenya is used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The results show the average probability of encountering pirates in 2012 is 0.0216% when a ship travels a thousand miles. The adjusted probability of encountering pirates is estimated to be 1.62%.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AW040 Marine Safety and Human Factors.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Huang, Dao-Zheng
  • Hu, Hao
  • Li, Yi-zhou
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 13p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Geographic information systems; Maritime safety; Piracy; Probability
• Geographic Terms: Kenya; Shanghai (China)
• Subject Areas: Marine Transportation; Security and Emergencies; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01516575
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-0177
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 28 2014 1:32PM