Estimating Separation Distance Loss Probability between Aircraft in Uncontrolled Airspace in Simulation

In this article, collision probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace is estimated. For that purpose, a large database of aircraft trajectories in the vicinity of Saint-Cyr-l’Ecole airfield (France) is considered and maps of probability collision from simulated aircraft are then estimated. Since the collision between aircraft is a rare event, we applied an importance splitting estimation technique rather than crude Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the variance of the probability estimation. In this study, we demonstrate the high local variability of collision probability in uncontrolled airspace and conclude on the difficulty to set general probability requirements.

• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753511003274
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09257535
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier. From a special issue: First International Symposium on Mine Safety Science and Engineering 2011
• Authors:
  • Morio, Jerome
  • Lang, Thibault
  • Le Tallec, Claude
• Publication Date: 2012-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; Photos; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 995-1004
• Serial:
  • Safety Science
  • Volume: 50
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0925-7535
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09257535

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic control; Air transportation crashes; Aircraft; Airport operations; Airspace utilization; Aviation safety; Estimating; Probability; Simulation; Statistics; Vehicle trajectories
• Geographic Terms: France
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01365514
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 20 2012 12:18PM