Theoretical Principles of Forecasting Accident Rate in The Conflict Sections of the Cities by the Method of Potential Danger

This paper describes an attempt to apply catastrophe theory for the process of road transport situation development into a conflict situation, which, in the result turns to the accident, through the interpretation of a potential danger of the conflict. For this purpose the simplest methods (elementary catastrophes) were used, allowing to estimate the values of the basic parameters of road traffic. The suggested method made it possible to consider the interaction of conflict points in joint location, what has considerably increased the adequacy of forecasting.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/1822427X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
• Authors:
  • Kapski, Dzianis
  • Leonovich, Ivan
  • Ratkeviciute, Kornelija
• Publication Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 133-140
• Serial:
  • Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering
  • Volume: 2
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
  • ISSN: 1822-427X
  • EISSN: 1822-4288
  • Serial URL: https://bjrbe-journals.rtu.lv/index
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Catastrophe theory; Crash rates; Crash risk forecasting; Traffic crashes; Traffic safety
• Geographic Terms: Belarus
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01080197
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 31 2007 6:38AM