FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE DEMAND FOR ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION: A DYNAMIC SIMULTANEOUS-EQUATION SYSTEM APPROACH

The dynamic characteristics of automobile demand are critical for national economic and revenue predictions. Automobile demand and ownership level forecasts are also the basis for travel demand models, land use-transport interaction models, and transport policies and regulations. This article develops a dynamic automobile demand simulation model using a simultaneous-equation system. The system considers the interaction between supply and demand and the resulting equilibrium. The model includes the current and lagged automobile quantity and price variables; economic, financial and operating cost variables; and income and government policy variables. The capabilities of the model are demonstrated through performing a number of simulation experiments considering various growth-development scenarios, changes in operating costs, government policies towards automobile imports, and demographic/employment shifts.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Taylor & Francis

    4 Park Square, Milton Park
    Abingdon,   United Kingdom  OX14 4RN
  • Authors:
    • Abu-Eisheh, S A
    • MANNERING, F L
  • Publication Date: 2002-12

Language

  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00936354
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jan 14 2003 12:00AM