AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP IN ASIAN COUNTRIES: HISTORICAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS

This study modeled automobile ownership for selected developed and developing countries to compare the automobile ownership development differences and to derive forecasts. Countries with different motorization, industrialization, and cultural backgrounds were examined: Asian developing (China, India, Malaysia, and Thailand), Asian developed (Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea), and Western developed (Canada, Netherlands, United Kingdom, and United States). Time series regression analyses were conducted independently for each country and compared. Automobile registrations for each country were obtained from the United Nations' "Statistic Yearbook." Results revealed that automobile ownership was a positive growth trend over the last 3 decades for all the countries. The Gross Domestic Product was an important determinant of national automobile ownership. Automobile ownership was easier to simulate in countries with relatively unrestricted policies on automobile ownership and use. Large dissimilarities in automobile ownership were also observed, with the absolute and per-capita levels of automobile ownership vastly different between developed and developing countries. For all developed countries except South Korea, the future national automobile ownership level is expected to grow at a slow rate; however, automobile ownership will grow rapidly for all the developing countries as their standard of living undergoes a dramatic improvement.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/614107147
• Corporate Authors:

  Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE)

  Washington, DC  United States 
• Authors:
  • Prevedouros, P D
  • An, P
• Publication Date: 1998-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 24-29
• Serial:
  • ITE Journal
  • Volume: 68
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE)
  • ISSN: 0162-8178
  • Serial URL: https://www.ite.org/publications/ite-journal/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Developing countries; Economic development; Economic forecasting; Economic growth; Forecasting; Gross domestic product; Mathematical models
• Geographic Terms: Asia; Canada; China; Hong Kong (China); India; Japan; Malaysia; Netherlands; Singapore; South Korea; Thailand; United Kingdom; United States
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Society; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00749266
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: May 28 1998 12:00AM