PROBABILITY MODEL OF LOCKAGE STALLS AND INTERFERENCES

A model of lock failures as manifested by stalls or interferences and specified in terms of a logit formulation is presented in this paper. Stalls or interferences that correspond to commercial tow and recreational vessel lockages and that result from lock hardware problems or to testing or maintaining the lock or its equipment are first considered. The expected frequency of such lock failures relative to the number of commercial tow and recreational vessel lockages is then explained. These expected frequencies can be viewed as measures of reliability or interpreted as the probability that such failures will occur on any given commercial tow or recreational vessel lockage. The qualitative results corresponding to the underlying variables are consistent with expectations. The usefulness and flexibility of the model in evaluating changes in the values of these variables is demonstrated. Among other things, this demonstration suggests that many major maintenance projects relating to lock chambers can be evaluated by their consequent effect on lock failure probabilities. It is demonstrated that the extent of the renewal of a chamber in response to major maintenance can be calculated.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1991/1313/1313-012.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=PROBABILITY+MODEL+OF+LOCKAGE+STALLS+AND+INTERFERENCES&author=H.+Kelejian&publication_year=1991
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/030905124X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1313, Freight Transportation: Truck, Rail, Water, and Hazardous Materials 1991. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Kelejian, Harry H
• Publication Date: 1991

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 91-97
• Monograph Title: Freight transportation: truck, rail, water, and hazardous materials 1991
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1313
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Failure; Frequency (Electromagnetism); Locks (Waterways); Logits; Maintenance; Probability; Reliability
• Uncontrolled Terms: Hardware; Probabilistic analysis
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Marine Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00620550
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 030905124X
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Mar 31 1992 12:00AM