POINT OF VIEW: URBAN RAIL TRANSIT SYSTEMS. PLAYING THE RAIL TRANSIT FORECASTING GAME

This article, in support of the Urban Mass Transportation Administration report "Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Costs" (1989), which meticulously documents the bias in urban rail transit forecasts, examines the motive, opportunity, and means for biased forecasting, especially where the rail transit alternative is concerned. In conclusion, the author calls for self-correcting discipline in the forecasting business, where consultants should be required to bond their forecasts: if they are wrong by more than x percent, they have to give back their fees, or even better, they have to build and operate the rail system at the cost they have projected.

• Digital Copy:
  • Purchase a digital copy of this publication for $25 USD
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/07386826
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Lave, C A
• Publication Date: 1991-9

Media Info

• Features: Photos; References;
• Pagination: p. 10-12
• Serial:
  • TR News
  • Issue Number: 156
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0738-6826

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Cost estimating; Estimates; Forecasting; Rail transit; Ridership; Urban transit
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00616512
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Nov 30 1991 12:00AM