URBAN RAIL TRANSIT PROJECTS: FORECAST VERSUS ACTUAL RIDERSHIP AND COSTS. FINAL REPORT

Substantial errors in forecasting ridership and costs for the ten rail transit projects reviewed in this report, put forth the possibility that more accurate forecasts would have led decision-makers to select projects other than those reviewed in this report. This study examines the accuracy of forecasts prepared for ten major capital improvement projects in nine urban areas during 1971-1987. Each project includes construction of a fixed transit guideway: Rapid Rail or Metrorail (Washington DC, Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami); Light Rail Transit (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Portland, Sacramento); and Downtown Peoplemover (Miami and Detroit). The study examines why actual costs and ridership differed so markedly from their forecast values. It focuses on the accuracy of projections made available to local decision-makers at the time when the choice among alternative projects was actually made. The study compares forecast and actual values for four types of measures: Ridership, Capital costs and financing, Operating and maintenance costs, and Cost-effectiveness. Forecasting data used in making comparisons were obtained from published planning documents; actual data were drawn from a combination of published sources, internal documents, and direct contacts with employees. This review of past forecasting errors identifies the causes of the divergence between forecast and actual performance of these projects; makes recommendations to improve the reliability of forecasts for future projects; and contributes toward fostering better urban transportation investment decisions. This report is organized into 6 chapters, numerous tables, and an appendix that documents the sources of all data appearing in the tables presented in this report.

• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/10023
• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/699
• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/698
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Systems Center

  55 Broadway, Kendall Square
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02142

  Urban Mass Transportation Administration

  Office of Grants Management, 400 7th Street, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Pickrell, D H
• Publication Date: 1989-10

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 164 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Alternatives analysis; Costs; Decision making; Light rail transit; People movers; Rapid transit; Ridership; Transportation planning
• Old TRIS Terms: Projection; Umta section 8
• Subject Areas: Finance; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00489831
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Urban Mass Transportation Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: UMTA-MA-08-9021-89-1
• Contract Numbers: UMTA-MA-08-9021
• Files: NTL, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Nov 30 1990 12:00AM